Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Elliott wave analysis - USD/JPY wave iv ended at 106.76. Look for a rally to 111.25

USD/JPY wave iv ended at 106.76. Look for a rally to 111.25 
With an almost perfect test of the 38.2% corrective target of wave iii at 106.81 and the bottom of blue wave iv of one lessor degree, the odds for wave iv being over are very higher and I will now be looking for a break above 107.50 to confirm the bottom of wave iv for a rally to at least 111.25 in wave v and possibly even higher to 112.31.
Short term only a break below 106.76 will delay the expected upside rally in wave v.

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Monday, October 13, 2014

Elliott wave analysis - Ending diagonal support-line broken

Dow Jones Industrial - The ending diagonal support-line has been broken 
The ending diagonal support-line was broken at Fridays close and that calls for a decline to at least the origin of the ending diagonal at 14,719, but I will be looking for a much larger decline as wave E of  the expanded triangle should move below the March 2009 low at 6,470.11.
See my long term count from March 2012 here this count has served me well and kept me on the right track.
I have added the Detrend Oscillator as the support-line here broke to for the first time since the March 2009 low also confirming a long term change in the trend. 
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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of USD/INR - Inverse S/H/S bottom is building

USD/INR an Inverse S/H/S bottom is building 
I'm still looking for acceleration higher towards 63.49 and higher to 65.17, but we need to allow for the right shoulder to finish completely before the expected acceleration higher will take place.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally since the late May low at 58.22 has developed nicely into a series of waves one's and two's. Once this phase of one's and two's is over, we should see a strong impulsive rally in wave three, with the first upside target being 63.49, but longer term even the August 2013 top at 69.22 should be exceeded.
Short term support will be found at 63.14, which ideally will protect the downside for the rally above the neckline resistance at 62.01, but only a break below support at 60.64 will be of concern.  

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Monday, October 6, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of NZY/JPY - Triple top triggered

NZD/JPY triple top triggered 
A major correction has unfolded in this cross since early February 2009. With the break below support at 85.69 a triple top has been triggered and we should see downside pressure mount for a test of support at 81.37 and strong support at 74.42 a break below the later will confirm a long term change in the trend and a new decline to below the ending point of wave A at 44.21.
We are of course talking many month before this low is broken, but I do expect a break below 44.21 for a continuation lower to 36.89.
Short term I'm looking for resistance at 85.69 and at 86.07, which ideally will protect the upside, but even if resistance at 86.07 should be broken it will likely only be able to produce a rally towards 86.55 before the downside pressure will take over again. 

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Friday, October 3, 2014

Elliott wave analysis on Soybean Oil - A nice triangle is building

Soybean Oil is building a nice triangle before lower to the 28.50 - 29.00 area 
Soybean oil is in a long term downtrend, which should ultimately take us to 19.10 (bottom of wave 4 of one lessor degree). However, we will not go there in a straight line and need a couple of swings on the way lower.
Currently a nice triangle is building, the triangle isn't finished yet, but we are getting close and once the triangle consolidation is over, we should see a thrust out of the triangle towards the downside for a continuation lower to the 28.50 - 29.00 area to end red wave v and black wave iii. This will set the stage for some kind of flat correction correction in black wave iv. As black wave ii was a simple zig-zag correction, we should expected some kind of flat black wave iv to unfold. It could also be a new triangle consolidation, but as triangles is made up of combinations of zig-zag's the first wave will be the same.
Once black wave iv is over in the 32.00 - 33.00 area we should look for the final impulsive decline towards 19.10 to end wave Y from 60.40.   

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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of FTSE 100 - Top confirmed at 6,904.85

FTSE 100 top confirmed at 6,904.85 
The break below the ending diagonal support-line, has confirmed the top at 6,904.85 and we should now be looking for a decline to the origin of the ending diagonal at 6,023.44, within half the time it took to build the formation. As it took 62 weeks to build the ending diagonal, we should expect a test of 6,023.44 no later than mid-April 2015.
More importantly, the top at 6,904.85 marked the top of the major corrective (B) wave from early March 2009 and we should now be looking for an impulsive decline in wave (C) lower to 3,461 in a major flat correction.
This is the third time the FTSE 100 index tops out near 6,900. In 2000 it topped at 6,935, in 2007 it topped out at 6,751 and now in 2014 at 6,904.85. Every top with a 7 year span. If we look at the bottoms, we can see that it bottomed in March 2003 at 3,278 and again in March 2009 at 3,765. If this sequence should continue, that will mean a bottom in March 2015... I do think a decline of that magnitude is unlikely in that short time frame and think it's more likely, that we will see a bottom in March 2016, but now we at least have an idea of the risk-scenario. 
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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

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