Thursday, June 23, 2016

CHF/JPY - Ending diagonal complete



CHF/JPY - Ending diagonal complete 

The ending diagonal resistance-line has just been broken confirming that the ending diagonal is complete. This means a rally towards the origin of the ending diagonal at 117.42 should be seen within half the time it took for the ending diagonal to develop. 
Short term support is found at 109.30, but I doubt this support will be seen.  
However. the ending diagonal also completed the long term corrective decline from 138.92 and this top should ultimately be broken as the next long term impulsive rally develops. 

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GBP/USD - To move lower no matter what today's outcome will be






GBP/USD - To move lower no matter what today's outcome will be 

The potential upside should be limited from here. Wave iv could already be in place with the 1.4844 high or we might see a move slightly higher to the equality target at 1.4944 from where a turn lower is expected. 

The rally of the late February 2016 low at 1.3834 is seen a corrective and this impulsive rally from 1.4010 should complete this correction and turn prices lower again in wave v. 

The ideal target for wave v is seen at 1.3344, but GBP/USD has a habit of extending its fifth wave, so the potential downside could be deeper. 

No matter, which way today's vote goes a decline should be seen soon. The top will be confirmed by a break below minor support at 1.4641

This also fits my preferred long term view well (you can see the long term view by clicking here). 

Only a failure to break below the 1.3834 low followed by a new impulsive rally calls for the alternate count (see the long term view).  




Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Special Brexit Report


Special Brexit Report

A Special Brexit Report has been issued for the EWS members:Elliott Wave Surfer Service

During yesterday's BBC debate the London Eye lite up showing the Leave 58%  (red) and 42% stay (blue).

What does the Elliott Wave Count say for Cable and FTSE 100? Join the EWS service and get your own copy.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Dow Jones Industrial - Long Term View


Dow Jones Industrial - Long Term View 

Way back in March 2012 I posted some interesting Fibonacci relationships for the rally from the 1932 low. 

Then the next relationship was the 2008 + 5 = 2013. However, 2013 went and nothing happened, but here we are again at an interesting year as 2008 + 8 = 2016 indicating a possible top some time during this year. 

I of cause can't say with any degree of certainty why the Fibonacci series was broken, but I do think FED distorted the normal cycle, by QE 1,2 and 3 and thereby moved the cycle towards the next Fibonacci number. 

I have been working the expanded triangle consolidation for years, but I have of cause some alternate count, which could be possible counts too. Only the alternate count #2 allows for a move slightly higher to 20,098 before wave [III] finally is in place and a major correction in wave [IV] develops. 

All the three counts calls for wave [IV] either unfolding already or beginning to unfold soon. 

If we apply the Alternation Principle wave [II] was a simple and deep decline, which means that [IV] should be complex shallow (this is the primarily reason, why I favor the expanding triangle count). The ideal bottom for wave [IV] should be expected in 2021:

2000 + 21 = 2021
2008 + 13 = 2021
2016 +   5 = 2021 (the cycle jumped one number, like because of FED and the QE).  

ALTERNATE COUNT #1

ALTERNATE COUNT #2

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Monday, June 20, 2016

Crude Oil - Long term View


Crude Oil - Long term View 

Since the June 2007 high at 147.27 a double zig-zag correction has been unfolding. The first zig-zag was a very sharp decline seen from the 147.27 high to a low of 33.20 as wave [W]. From the 33.20 low a corrective [X] wave was seen to 114.81 setting the stage for the second zig-zag decline to a low of 26.06 in early February. 

The big question now is, whether the ongoing rally will represent a new impulsive rally or another [X] wave should be expected? I do prefer the [X] wave count unfolding from the 26.06 low, but no matter what count proves correct, we should see much more upside in the weeks/months ahead. 

The first important target to look for is seen at 62.58, from where a correction to 49.00 and maybe even lower to 42.72 should be expected before the next big rally higher towards the long term resistance-line from the 2008 higher. 

If the resistance-line breaks the rally is expected to all the way back to 107.76, but the resistance-line will likely not be broken on the first attempt if at all. 

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CHF/JPY - The ending diagonal resistance-line near 109.44 about to be tested again



CHF/JPY - The ending diagonal resistance-line near 109.44 about to be tested again

On June 10 I posted an article saying the the ending diagonal resistance-line near 111.50 was about to break (you can see that post by clicking here). Well I was a wave too early and the ending diagonal resistance-line held for one final decline to 107.13. 
This final decline performed a classic under-throw of the ending diagonal support-line and quick return into the ending diagonal formation, which normally is a strong indication of the bottom being in place. To confirm that the ending diagonal is complete, we need a break above the ending diagonal resistance-line currently near 109.44 and above here will call for a rally towards the origin of the ending diagonal at 117.41, within half the time it took to build the ending diagonal. 
Long term, much higher levels will be expected. 

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Sunday, June 19, 2016

Gold - Long term View


Gold - Long Term View 

Since the November 2011 high at 1,921 gold has decline in five waves to 1,046 in November 2015. A five wave decline indicates that a large zig-zag (5-3-5) correction is unfolding. 

We have seen wave [A] from 1,921 to 1,406 and is currently in the middle of wave [B] which is expected to move higher towards the 1,457 - 1,521 area before terminating and turning lower in wave [C]. 

If wave [C] becomes equal to wave [A] in length, then wave [C] should decline to 611. 

That said, strong support is seen both near 850 and below near 693 which both could provide support strong enough to terminate the long term correction from 1,921 and turn prices higher again. 

I prepared a special report to my subscribers on June 8. If you want a copy of this special report for free, then please send a e-mail to: ews@elliottwavesurfer.com saying "YES" and it will be e-mailed to you asap. It is very educational too.


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