The wave 2 correction from 0.8400 became even more complex than expected, but it finally seems at it's over and wave 3 higher towards at least 0.8610 can take over.
To confirm that wave 3 is under way a break above resistance at 0.8283 and more importantly resistance at 0.8310 needs to be broken.
However, Elliott's first rule said, that wave 2 never ever can break below the starting point of wave 1, which is at 0.8154 and that Means we have a very favorable risk/reward situation at the current level.
The decline from 1,331.16 is clearly impulsive and confirms that wave b of D is over and wave c lower towards 1,217 is developing.
Short term I would like to see a break below support at 1,293.54 to confirm that wave iii lower is developing for a decline towards at last 1,265 before a new meaningful consolidation should be expected.
The decline from 16,631.63 does have impulsive characters, but to confirm that an important long term top is in place, then resistance at 16,456.12 can't be broken. Any break above 16.456.12 will confirm that the decline from 16,631.63 is corrective and a new rally to and likely above 16,631.63 should be seen.
If however, resistance at 16,456.12 does protect the upside for a break below 16,227.31 and more importantly below support at 16,063.20 the impulsive structure will be confirmed and a powerful decline in wave iii lower should be expected.
The break above short term important resistance at 141.55 made me go back to my original short term count (see my update from yesterday here) . This count shows that red wave i ended at 140.08 and since then red wave ii has been developing. It is possible that red wave ii ended with the test of 141.76 yesterday, as that marked the 50% corrective target of red wave i, but the decline from 141.76 does not really look impulsive and therefore I think that one more new high closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 142.17 will be seen before red wave iii takes over for a decline towards 136.33.
With the break above 141.55 I have gone back to my original count, which had red wave i from 143.47 to 140.08 and red wave ii is currently unfolding towards 141.76 and possibly even higher towards 142.18 before red wave iii will be ready to take over for a decline towards 136.31.
I do expect more downside pressure, but green wave ii has become much larger than expected, however, it is allowed to correct all of green wave i, which means a return to 141.55, but it can not break above this important resistance even with one pip as that would change my preferred short term count to a more complex blue wave iv correction. If however, resistance at 141.55 does protect the upside for a break below 141.15 and more importantly a break below 140.82 I will be looking for green wave iii towards 139.72 and maybe even slightly deeper towards 139.43.
I'm a keen Elliott wave follower. I do use, what you might call, standard technical analysis too, but my main focus is on the Elliott Wave Principel.
I use it professionaly as well as in my private affairs. To give you an example I sold my house in late 2005 and are currently renting a flat, not expecting to reenter the property market before 2012-2013.
I'm very much into long term seasonal cycles and demography too.
Waiver: I will not accept any responsability for any loss of funds because of any investmenst done on the basis of my analysis. The analysis herein are done with the utmost due dilligence, but can from time to time be wrong and point you in the wrong direction.
You are always wellcome to pop me a qustion or comment on my work and I will try to answer your question, but might not allways have the time to do everything.
My e-mail is: firstname.lastname@example.org