Friday, September 23, 2016

Sugar - Sweet traded completed at 23.45


                                          Sugar - Daily

                                          Sugar - Weekly

                                          Sugar - Monthly 

Sugar - Sweet traded completed at 23.45 

On September I called for a final rally into the 22.60 - 23.10 area to complete the rally from 10.13 (You can see my September 14'th post by clicking here).

Yesterday, we saw a spike to 23.45 and a quick reversal to end the trading day almost where it started the day. Using Japanese Candle Sticks, this candle is called a shooting star and is a reversal candle indicating a top has been seen. 

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the corrective rally from 10.13 now is complete and we should look for the first impulsive decline close to 18.71 from where a corrective rally towards 21.00 should be seen and then an even stronger decline towards 12.44 and 10.13 on the way lower to 7.41. 

This was a nice and sweet trade, but there is no reason, why selling sugar shouldn't a sweet trade too. 

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NZD/USD - Just completed an ending diagonal

                                          NZD/USD - 4 Hourly 

                                          NZD/USD - Weekly 

NZD/USD - Just completed an ending diagonal  

With the break below the ending diagonal support-line near 0.7268 an ending diagonal has been completed calling for a decline back to the origin of the ending diagonal at 0.6343 and longer term a decline even lower towards 0.5000 is expected. 

Short term, support is seen just below 0.7268 at 0.7231 and this support needs to break too, but it should just be a matter of time before this support gives away too for the next strong decline towards 0.6343 and below. 

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Thursday, September 15, 2016

Coca Cola - Important top seen at 47.13


Coca Cola - Monthly

Coca Cola - Weekly

Coca Cola - Daily 

Coca Cola - Important top seen at 47.13 

From time to time, I look at stocks I normally don't follow and I have had an eye on Coca Cola for a little while now and feel pretty confident in saying that a long term important top was seen at 47.13. 
I have prepare a chart-pack containing the monthly, weekly and daily charts, showing the case for a long term top being in place at 47.13 and that a major correction towards 18.29 should be expected. 
Starting with the monthly chart, we can see Coca Cola bottomed way back in October 1974 at 0.46 and has since rallied nicely to the peak of 47.13 in five waves. The ideal wave V target was seen at 45.26, where wave V was 61.8% of the length from the bottom of wave I to the top of wave III added to the bottom of wave IV. Well this target was exceeded slightly, but the price-action since the 47.13 high suggests that the long term corrective decline to the low of wave IV now is unfolding. 
Once a five wave move is complete, the first corrective target to look for the low or high of wave four, which is the case of Coca Cola comes in at 18.29, this also happens to be where this correction will have corrected 61.8% of the rally from 0.46 to 47.13 - Coincident you think?
If we zoom into the weekly time-frame, we can see the rally in wave V from 18.29 to 47.13. Again a nice five wave rally can be counted and wave 5 would have been 38.2% of the length from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4 at 46.00 pretty close to the monthly target of 45.26.
The important low to break on this time-frame is seen at 40.75, but once broken there should be no looking back for a long time.
Zooming in on the daily time-frame and the final rally in wave 5, we would like to see another five wave rally, which is exactly what has been seen from 36.56 to 47.13. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows is now being revers to a series of lower highs and lower lows, which the break below 42.87 has confirmed. As just said, the next important support to look for is seen at 40.75, but a break below this support will leave no more doubt, that a long term corrective decline towards 18.29 is unfolding.

If you like the above post and want to enjoy the insight and the opportunities that follows, then you should consider joining my service elliottwavesurfer.com. Click at the link and see, what I have to offer. 

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Sugar - Final rally higher towards the 22.60 - 23.10 ready to take off


On May 12 a made a post under the headline "Sugar - A Sweet Trade Towards The 22.60 - 23.10" Area" (you can see the post to the members of Elliott Wave Surfer Service below)





Wave 4 has just completed with the test of 19.81 and the final rally in wave 5 towards the 22.60 - 23.10 area is developing. Once wave 5 is complete renewed downside pressure should be expected, but for now keep your focus towards the 22.60 - 23.10 area to complete the rally from 10.13.





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US 30 Y T-Bonds and Junk Bonds - declines adding pressure on stocks


                                          US 30 Y T-Bonds

                                          Junk Bonds

US 30 Y T-Bonds and Junk Bonds - declines adding pressure on stocks

Both the US 30 Y T-Bonds and the Junk bonds is declining adding considerable pressure on stocks too. The 30 Y T-bonds completed an ending diagonal with the test of 177.11 and has much more downside to cover, while the Junk bonds complete wave 4 with the test of 36.77 and the break below the support-line near 36.29 was the first good indication that wave 5 lower to at least 30.15 is unfolding. If the Market suddenly is gripped by panic, we could easily see and extension in wave 5, which will prolong the decline in wave 5 to 26.07 almost the bottom seen in March 2009.
The higher yield, will add considerable pressure on stocks too. We saw stocks try to fight their way back after Friday's sell-off, but yesterday they gave up all of Monday's gain and is on the verge for the next big sell-off.
I'm sure the Stock Market will put up a serious fight trying not to cave-in, but I think the long term picture looks weak and the long term topping process that began way back in late December 2014 finally could be coming to an end. We of cause needs more prof, but I do find it very worrisome that the break into new all-time high levels was reversed almost immediately, That is never a good sign.    
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Saturday, September 10, 2016

DJI - S/H/S top triggered



DJI - S/H/S top triggered 

On August 12 - 2016 I posted a post under the headline

"DJI - New all-time high at 18,638 could have long term consequences"



I that post, I said that the new all-time high just seen could have long term consequences and the first warning that a long term top could be in place was a break below 18,247 would be a strong warning that a top is in place. 

Yesterday we did see the break below support at 18,247, with this break we also triggered a small S/H/S top.

On August 21 - 2016 I posted a post under the headline

"Warning of change is in the air" 

The August 21 - 2016 Post can be seen by clicking here

In that post, I showed that the classic Dow signal of divergence between the Dow Jones Transportation and the Dow Jones Industrial indices is more than clear, indicating that change is in the air.

As I said to the members of my service yesterday "If you have a stock portfolio that needs protection, now is as good a time as any to do that"

If you like the above post and want to enjoy the insight and the opportunities that follows, then you should consider joining my service elliottwavesurfer.com. Click at the link and see, what I have to offer. 


Sunday, September 4, 2016

GBP/JPY - Foreseeing the possible wave ii low on August 16

On August 16 - 2016 I made a post under the headline: "GBP/JPY - Make it or Break it point at 128.75" to the members of my service - You can see a copy of the post below


The two charts below, is the actual charts in that post from August 16 - 2016




The first chart represented my preferred count, which was calling for a wave ii low at or just above 128.75, while the second chart was the alternate count in the case that a break below 128.75 was seen. 

Under the Elliott Wave Principle second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, which in this case meant that wave ii was allowed to hit 128.75, but couldn't break 128.75 with a single pip. Well, 17 days later the result is clear. Important support at 128.75 held as the low was seen at 129.11 and prices are now 6.8% above the price of the time I wrote the post. 


I think this underlines the strength and advantages of the Elliott Wave Principle. We knew at exactly what point the count would be wrong and also could come up with an alternative strategy, if the invalidation point at 128.75 was broken. 

So what can be expected going forward? As can be seen from the 4 hourly chart above, the rally of the 129.11 low started with a series of waves one's and two's and now a series of wave three's are unfolding. The Fibonacci measurements following the series of waves one's and two's has given a target cluster between 139.73 - 140.16, but will this be the top? I don't expect that to be the case. More upside to or just above 143.24 will be expected after a short term hesitation at the target cluster. 

Once the former top at 143.24 has been reached, I would expect a correction towards 136.30 before the next impulsive rally breaking clearly above 143.24 for a rally to at least 152.61 and possibly even higher. Even-though I will be looking for some kind of correction near 143.24, I will have to add that we are in a wave three rally and corrections/consolidation during third waves tend to be small or even sub-normal. So we might just blast directly through resistance at 143.24 for the rally higher to 152.61. 

At this point a rally to 152.61 may seem a bit extreme, but if we look at the longer term picture (see the weekly chart below), then my count shows that we completed wave [2] or [B] at 128.75 and that a new long term impulsive rally towards at least 207.85 now is unfolding.  

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