Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of the USD-Index - The target is at 82.21

USD-Index next target at 82.21

The rally from July 1 low at 79.75 has unfolded perfectly and is currently sitting just below the 82.21 target. At 82.21 red wave iii will be 361.8% the length of red wave i. But how do we know, that the 82.21 target likely will hold for a correction in red wave iv?

Well we don't for sure, that 82.21 will hold and turn the USD-Index lower in red wave iv, but beside the 361.8% extension target, we also saw a nice triangle formation as sub-wave iv of red wave iii and triangles tell us two things. First a triangle tells us, that once the formation is over, the underlying trend will be resumed (in this case higher, which clearly is what we have seen). Second a triangle formation tells us, that the next move in direction of the underlying trend will be the last of that sequence, before a correction takes over. So the rally to 82.21 should be followed by a correction.

Then what can be expected of this red wave iv correction? The first thing we will look for is a correction back to the bottom of wave four of one lessor (in this case blue wave iv, which comes in at 81.26). Then we apply the Fibonacci ratios to the rally from 79.75 to 82.21 and the 38.2% corrective target comes in at exactly 81.26, so now we already have to identical for red wave iv, when we have a cluster of target like this, we should always expect this target not only to work like a magnet, but also provide the necessary support to kick of red wave v higher.

For now we should keep our focus on the 82.21 target, but remember we are close to a short term top for red wave iii and a correction should soon follower in red wave iv.

If you like this post, then you should consider joining the Elliott Wave Surfer Service. Click at the link and see, what I have to offer.  

Friday, August 15, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of Crude Oil - Finally breaking lower


Crude Oil finally breaks lower

The downside break we have been looking for over the last couple of weeks finally materialized yesterday. Not alone did we see a break below minor support at 96.57 on the 8 hourly chart, but more importantly the break below 96.57 also meant we saw a clear break below the long term support-line back from January 2009 on the weekly chart, which will add considerably downside side pressure here.

Short term I will be looking for a test of 93.57 as the first possible target of wave (v) and I of 3, but if 93.57 is broken too, then we should be looking for an extension in wave (v) lower to 90.75. It's not uncommon for commodities, that the fifth wave extends.

However, longer term we should see an even strong decline towards in wave 3 towards at least 86.80 and possibly even deeper towards 74.02, where wave 3 will be 161.8% of wave 1 and at the same time meet the 50% corrective target of the rally from 33.22 to 114.81.

If you like this post, then you should consider joining the Elliott Wave Surfer Service. Click at the link and see, what I have to offer.



Thursday, August 14, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY - Channel support broken, calling for a decline to at least 163.28

GBP/JPY moving lower to 169.45

We have finally seen the break below the channel support-line at 171.35, which confirms that wave C lower to at least 163.28 longer term.

We saw the top of the impulsive rally from mid-January 2012 at 117.26 at 174.85 in early January 2014 and has since seen an expanded flat correction unfolding. Wave B of this correction, did break slightly above the origin of wave A and therefore this correction is an expanded flat. Wave C should at least see a decline to 163.28 where wave C will be equal in length to wave A and wave C should unfold in an impulsive manner (five wave decline).

Short term we should see a break below 170.52 call for a decline to 169.45, but that should just be a minor stop on the way lower towards 163.28.

If you like this post, then you should consider joining my service at Elliottwavesurfer.com. Click at the link and see, what I have to offer.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - The b-wave triangle is almost over

USD/JPY - Wave b should be over soon

Since the 75.56 low ultimo October 2011 we have seen a nice five wave rally to 105.44 in mid-January 2014. We are currently correcting this five wave rally in a simple zig-zag correction. Wave a of this correction became an expanded leading diagonal and we are currently working on wave b. From the chart above it's clear, that wave b has become a b-wave triangle.
We are in the final staged of this b-wave triangle and should soon see a thrust out of the triangle towards the downside for a decline to 93.33, where wave c will be equal in length to wave a. At the same time we will find the 23.6% corrective target of the rally from 75.56 to 105.44 at 93.26.
With a cluster of targets in the 93.26 - 93.33 we should expect this area to protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher.

However, for now we should focus on the final part of the final part of the triangle ending close to 102.94 for a strong decline in wave c towards 93.33.

If you like this post, you should consider joining my service at Elliott Wave Surfer click at the link and see what I have to offer.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Elliott eave analysis of EUR/NZD - Impulsive five wave rally from 1.5398

EUR/NZD target at 1.5920

We have a nice five wave rally of the 1.5398 low. The ideal target for wave v of 1 is at 1.5920, we could of course see an extension higher towards 1.5965, but no matter what a minor top should be close by.

The five wave rally tells us, that we should expect only a correction, once wave v finally is in place. After the correction a new impulsive rally should be seen.

As we can count five nice wave up from 1.5398 and have a minor triangle as wave iv, we know that we are in the final move higher of this impulsive rally, before a correction lower to 1.5555 takes over.

If you like this post, you would like my service at Elliottwavesurfer.com click at the link and see what I have to offer

Monday, August 11, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Wave iii ended at 135.73

EUR/JPY wave iii ended at 135.73

I was looking for a wave iii target at 135.48, but break above 136.46 told us, that wave iii ended a little early at 135.73. We should now look for wave iv towards red wave iv of one lessor degree at 138.00. It's very common for fourth waves to terminate close to a fourth wave of one lessor degree, which in this case would be red wave iv at 138.00, from where we should see the final decline to 134.34 to end wave C.

At 134.34 wave C will be equal in length to wave A from 145.69 to 136.23.

Short term we should allow for a correction to 136.20 before the final rally to 138.00 to end wave iv.

If you enjoyed this post, the might also enjoy the Elliott Wave Surfer Service. Click at the link and see what I have to offer.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of USD/INR - The 161.8% extension target at 61.78 almost tested

USD/INR is almost testing the 161.8% extension target at 61.78

Since my last update on July 31, we have seen a perfect impulsive rally and is sitting just below the 161.8% extension target at 61.78 (the high till now has been 61.73). Even if we does see a set-back from 61.78, it should only prove short-lived and it should just be a matter of time before the next impulsive rally breaks right through resistance at 61.78 for a continuation higher to 62.93 and possibly even higher.

Short term support will be found at 61.19

If you find this post interesting, then you should consider joining the Elliott Wave Surfer Service. Click at the link and see, what I have to offer