Friday, May 27, 2016

Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible




Crude Oil - Has tested the 50.16 target, but a rally to 50.98 is still possible 

I have been calling for a rally towards 50.98 as the ideal target for a while now. Yesterday, we saw a test of the 50.16 target (the high was seen at 50.20). As long as minor support at 48.66 is able to protect the downside, we could still see a continuation higher to the ideal 50.98 target, but from here or upon a direct break below support at 48.66 a corrective decline towards 42.50 should be expected. 
I still see and hear quite a few calling for a new decline to below 26.06, but my long term count does not support a new low below 26.06. To the contrary my long term count calls for much more upside to be seen. 
My long term cycles called for a bottom to be seen around January 18 and just two weeks after crude oil finally bottomed at 26.06. With the low in place, my next cycle top should be seen next week, but it should only cause a minor top and set the stage for a minor correction before moving higher again for many weeks/months, working its way higher to 62.58 and 80.00 as the next major upside targets. 

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Thursday, May 26, 2016

EUR/NZD - A break above 1.6715 will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 1.8420 has begun

EUR/NZD - A break above 1.6715 will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 1.8420 has begun 

After the resistance-line from the 1.7222 high was broken in early May prices has more or less been glued to this line, but now acting as support. 
However, the minor consolidation looks as if it's coming to an end and a break above minor resistance at 1.6715 will be the first indication that the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.8420 is developing. 
On the way higher the former high at 1.7222 of cause will act as resistance, but it should just be a matter of time before this resistance is taken out too for the continuation higher towards 1.8420 and above. 

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Wednesday, May 25, 2016

EUR/GBP - The ideal corrective target at 0.7565 is with striking distance



EUR/GBP - The ideal corrective target at 0.7565 is with striking distance

This cross has been correcting in a simple zig-zag correction since the 0.8117. the ideal target for wave C and (2) or (B) is seen at 0.7565, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A. The ideal wave C target is now with striking distance, and we should prepare for a strong upside rally soon. 
With a low seen at 0.7600, we should seen minor resistance at 0.7640 protect the upside for the final decline closer to the ideal 0.7565 target from where a new impulsive rally is expected. If however, minor resistance at 0.7640 fails to protect the upside, then odds favors that a low for wave C was found already at 0.7600 and the next impulsive rally is developing for a rally towards 0.8750. 
Stay tuned for a bottom soon.

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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

AUD/NZD - Bottom in place at 1.0617


AUD/NZD - Bottom in place at 1.0617 
In Sunday's update (you can that update by clicking here) I called for a bottom near 1.0600 and yesterday we saw a test of 1.0617 followed by a rally above the ending diagonal resistance-line confirming that the low is in place and a rally back to the origin of the ending diagonal at 1.0921 should be seen within half the time it took the ending diagonal to build.
Please observe that a throw under the ending diagonal support-line was seen, before the low and reversal from 1.0617 was seen. This is normally a strong sign that an important low is in place.  
The low at 1.0617 terminated the wave ii correction from 1.1333 and ultimately, this high should be exceeded in wave iii for a continuation towards at least 1.2133 and likely even higher to the 161.8% extension target at 1.2871.
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Monday, May 23, 2016

GBP/USD - Breaking support near 1.4485 calls for a decline to 1.4024


GBP/USD - Breaking support near 1.4485 calls for a decline to 1.4024 


The break below support near 1.4485 confirms that an impulsive decline from 1.4664 has been seen and calls for more downside pressure to 1.4024 and lower for the coming days/weeks. 
Short term, the downside momentum will stay intact as long as minor resistance at 1.4485 is able to hold. The next minor downside target to look for is seen at 1.4439 and below here 1.4371. 
A break above minor resistance at 1.4485 will call for a correction towards 1.4594 before lower again. 
Longer term, much lower levels should be seen, with an ultimate break below 1.3834 calling for a continuation lower to 1.3344.  

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Friday, May 20, 2016

USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017

USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017 
We have been pretty much on top of USD/JPY since it bottomed in late 2011. Lately, I have been looking at some different things in regard to the long term picture and observed that a fixed cycle was in work. This cycle is 47 weeks long and shifts between a "up" and a "down/sideways" period. the last "down/sideways" period terminate at the exact low in the first week of May and if this cycle continues to work like it has for the last 4½ years, then we will be in an "up" cycle going forward to March 2017. This also fits the Elliott wave count perfectly as it calls for renewed upside pressure towards and above the top at 125.86 in the coming months.
To confirm that a long term bottom is in place, we need a break above resistance at 111.88, but when it breaks there should be no doubt about the long term direction.  

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Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Elliott wave analysis of Facebook - A top is in place at 86.07

Facebook a top is in place at 86.07 
I have been looking for confirmation that a top was in place at 86.07 and yesterday saw the first close below the support-line from 54.66 and at the same time, we saw support at 77.26 pierced, these two breaks of support does indicate that a top is in place at 86.07 and a correction of wave [3] now is about to unfold. The first corrective target for this correction is found at 69.48, which marks the 23.6% corrective target, but a more likely target is the 38.2% corrective target at 59.55, which is also close to the bottom of wave (4) of one lessor degree.
If you look back in my previous posts you will see a post from March 24 where I mention the possibility of an ending diagonal (you can see the post here). That post was filed at the very same day that the top at 86.07 was being set. I that post I also said that the top likely would be found in the 86 - 87 area and it certainly did.
Well this ending diagonal count is as valid as the count shown above and this count also calls for a correction unfolding. Whenever an ending diagonal is finished, we should expect to see a return to the origin of the formation, which in this case is at 43.55 and it should take half the time it took for the ending diagonal to develop, which would call for a decline to 43.55 (about a 50% decline from the top at 86.07) in about 6 - 9 months.

Let me say already, if a decline to 43.55 is seen, that would call for a relabeling of the larger picture, but ultimately be much more bullish long term.  

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