Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD


Important support at 123.87 protected the downside for a direct break above 126.05, which confirmed that we had one last rally higher coming. As blue wave iii of wave v was slightly shorter than blue wave i of wave v, we now know the absolute maximum length of blue wave v of wave v, which is at 129.77. Any break above 129.77 will force me to reevaluate my count. We are now getting a cluster of Resistance in the 129-area. At 129.18 wave v will be 0.618 times the length traveled from the bottom of wave i to the top of wave iii. At 129.55 Wave 3 will be 3 times longer than wave 1 and finally at 129.77 blue wave v will equal in length to blue wave iii. This means, that I will expect wave 3 to top out in between 129.18 - 129.77 and wave 4 to take over. Short term we will find important support at 125.73 and a break below here will be the first indication, that a top is in place. However, to confirm the top we need a break below 124.01.


The channel support-line held as expected for a break above minor resistance at 1.6043, but the rally from 1.5969 is in no way impressive as of yet and we need to see some acceleration higher soon for a break above 1.6158, which will indicate a new rally higher towards 1.6277 and 1.6358 on the way towards 1.6524. Short term we now find support at 1.6043 and important support at 1.5969. A break below 1.5969 will weaken the uptrend seriously and be the first indication, that our count is wrong.


  1. Hi EWS,
    Any comments on the GBP/USD?
    I am interested to hear your thoughts on the 4 hour chart. It looks now like it could test 1.52, but I am too scared to reshort here because of the trendline support.

  2. Hi Todd

    Regarding GBP/USD (Cable) I too would be very careful to enter short positions here. As you say the supportline way back from 1.4237 is just below and at the same time wave v of the deline from 1.6381 has it's first target at 1.5618 almost exactly the same as the trendline support. A break below strong support at 1.5618 would call for a continuation towards 1.5454, but still would not be able to say with cetainty, that a new major downtrend has begun.

    As you know I'm still more in favore of a new major uptrend starting soon, but I will wait for confirmation on which outcome is the correct one.

    Kind regards

  3. Hi EWS allot of consolidation today between 6113 High and 6035 Low with Eur/nzd what do you favor bulls or bears trying to break 6043 nowing my luck all volume tomorrow as i cant be in front of my screen always the way lol

    Best Regards jt