Monday, December 9, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY - Have wave 4 been a Skewed triangle?


Has been very hard to read since end of May. Was and ending diagonal developing? With the clear break above 140 we can say no to that solution, then what has been going on since the wave 3 high at 127.70 on February 6 - 2013?

The declines and the rallies since the wave 3 high at 127.70 till the low at 131.20 on November 7 - 2013 has all been in three waves and thereby corrective by nature. They have been overlapping. Behaviors we would normally we would expect for an ending diagonal, but the final rally of the 131.20 low has simply been way too large and impulsive for that outcome to be correct.

The only two other corrective formations, that can behave like this, is a triple correction and a Skewed Triangle (see the chart below). I will not rule out the triple correction, but I like the Skewed Triangle concept better. Looking at USD/JPY we also saw a wave 4 triangle (see the chart below) and is currently in wave v of 5 as it's the case in EUR/JPY.

If we consider the Skewed Triangle as the preferred count in EUR/JPY, then we have a possible measurement for wave 5. The minimum target for wave 5 is 61.8% of the length of the triangle (118.73 - 135.50):
61.8% target = 141.56
78.6% target = 144.38 and finally
100%  target = 147.97

If we use the normal way to calculate the possible target of wave 5. We measure the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 (94.10) to the top of wave 3 (127.70) and add this to the bottom of wave 4 we get the following targets:
38.2% target to 144.03
50.0% target to 148.00 and
61.8% target to 151.96

As we have a cluster of targets in the 144.03 - 144.38 zone and again in the 147.97 - 148.00 zone. I will be looking for a possible top near 144.00 and if broken clearly the next target will likely be near 148.00

Only a break below 138.42 will indicate, that an important long term top is in place for a major correction towards at least 124.92.



  1. EWS,
    AHH Now it all fits... Skewed - Or maybe the Draghi/Shirakawa Triangle?

    On EURNZD somethings been bugging me on the weekly chart Since the Nov 7 Low we haven't seen rising Indicator
    I'm thinking your correct and we could see some more downside to below 1.59 (maybe even 1.55 or 1.53) I saw about 4 different alternates- But PA last week and 2x reject off the 50 Fibo today is leaning towards the downside.

    1. Hi Jeff,

      I agree with you on EUR/NZD. It's not and has not been a walk in the park to figure it out.

      Thank you for the charts.

      Kind regards