Friday, December 6, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of USD/ZAR - Is a top nearby?


USD/ZAR

As I said a break above 10,4588 would change my Count. I'm still looking for a wave D high, but under the new Count we should see a move closer to the 10,5900 - 10,6000 zone before the high is in place.

As can be seen on the weekly chart we have a massive bearish divergence Building and that does indicate, that the upside potential is limited. However to confirm that the top is in place we need a break below 10,29998 and more importantly a break below 10,2573.


3 comments:

  1. Hi EWS thanks for the update i am looking at the same levels roughly 10.58/59 been stopped out twice on shorts with one gain one small loss possable i ii in 4hr if we get high volume brake below 10.40 and holding.
    Thanks for the great posts and In advance have a great weekend jt

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  2. Hello EWS,
    concerning EURAUD & AUDUSD you wrote as follows:
    „Elliott wave surferNovember 30, 2013 at 4:27 PM
    Hi Juan,
    Sorry, but no! I don't see a rally towards 1.00. I do see the possiblity for a correction towards 0.9205 and maybe even 0.9250, before the next decline lower towards at least 0.8204 and likely even lower.
    EUR/AUD
    We now have a five wave rally in place since the low at 1.1605. I will be looking for a continuation higher towards 1.5355 in wave v of 5, but with the new high above the top of wave 3 at 1.5030 all requirements is fulfilled and a top could be in any time now.
    A break below wave iv of 5 at 1.4799 will confirm that wave 5 is over and that a correction towards the 1.3920 - 1.4050 zone is developing.”
    How can it be that both fall at the same time? When do you expect that EURAUD about 1000 - 1300 pips falls, then it can not be that AUDUSD corrected only about 200 pips. If your view regarding EURAUD proves correct, then AUDUSD must increase at least to 0.974.

    Thx for your answer

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    Replies
    1. Hi Paulina,

      If EUR/USD falls faster than AUD/USD you will get a decline in EUR/AUD.

      I don't like to view two currencypairs the way you do, because we don't know if EUR/USD will decline faster, that AUD/USD. If my AUD/USD is wrong as you suggest or EUR/AUD will move higher than I expect. We have no way to know what will do what. All we can do is use the guidelines we have available to provide us with the best odds for a possible top or bottom.

      The only thing we know for sure is "that the Market is always right".

      Kind regards
      EWS

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