The Elliott wave surfer

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; EUR/TRY and DJI

2012-02-17T08:58:00.006+01:00

USD Index - The price action in the USD-Index was absolutely not in favor of the USD-Bulls yesterday, but as longs as support in the 78.75 - 79.00 protects the downside I will be looking for a new leg higher above 80.20 for a continuation higher towards the neckline resistance near 81.50.
A break below 78.75 will be bearish for the USD and call for a new test of support near 78.00 and possibly lower.

EUR/USD - As I just said above the price action for the USD-Bulls wasn't the best yesterday. The most USD-bullish count I can come up with is shown in the chart above. Since the top at 133.21 we have seen a Leading Diagonal as wave 1 and are now in wave 2, which should not break above resistance at 132.40, which could be the left shoulder of a possible S/H/S top.

Any break above 132.40 will leave the USD vulnerable for a continuation higher in EUR/USD towards 133.50 and maybe even 134.50, but this is not my preferred view at this point.

USD/JPY - Clearly broke above the neckline resistance at 78.70 yesterday calling for a continuation higher towards the S/H/S target at 82.70. On the way to the S/H/S target strong resistance will be found at 80.25, which could push us back towards the former neckline resistance, which now has turned into support.

EUR/TRY - Has clearly broken down from the second nice little bear-flag and should be headed towards 224.50 and later on the Double top target near 221.25.

Just a reminder. Keep an eye on TRY/JPY as the current weakness in the JPY could push us directly above the Double bottom neckline resistance at 44.65 and a close above here would call for a continuation higher towards the target near 49.00.

Dow Jones Industrial - Of the two possible counts i described yesterday the wave 4 count is clearly the correct one, which means we are now in wave 5 up to just above 1,922. I would expect wave 5 top in the 12,946 - 13,000 area. That doesn't not mean I am advocating for a long position in DJI. To the contrary we are getting very close to an important top and a serious decline. However we need a break below 12,753 to confirm the top for a decline towards strong support in the 12,529 - 12,580 area.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on Apple; USD-Index; EUR/USD; EUR/TRY; VIX-Index; DJI and Crude oil

2012-02-16T08:41:00.012+01:00

USD/JPY - The neckline resistance at 78.65 might be breaking. A close above this neckline resistance at 78.65 will call for a continuation towards next resistance at 80.26 and most likely higher towards the Inverse S/H/S target at 82.70.
Stops on any longs should be placed just below 77.35.

NB! Keep an eye on TRY/JPY a close above the Double bottom neckline at 44.70 will trigger the bottom-formation for a rally towards 48.90 and probably even higher.

Original post below

Apple - Raced past resistance near 500, made a throw over at the resistance line turned back down and closed the day with an ugly Bearish engulfin candle. That doesn't border well for Apple in the coming days/weeks. We have a large gap to fill in the 430 - 444 area.

The last part of the rise from 363 has become as vertical a rise as you get them. A vertical rise is always a warning, that the rocket is running out of fuel and when the rise ends, a return to the starting point is almost always the outcome, which would call for a return to at least 363.

USD Index - Have broken above minor resistance at 79.55, which do call for a new rally towards the neckline resistance at 81.65 and a break here will leave the upside open for a move towards 91.60.

The former minor resistance at 79.55, should now act as support.

EUR/USD - Is almost a perfect inverse picture of the USD-Index, but also accounts for close to 59% of the USD-Index. The next minor hurdle to cross is support near 128.90 on the way to neckline support at 126.10. A clear break below the neckline at 126.10 will leave the downside open for a decline towards 109.

Minor resistance is now found at 130.30 and 131.00.

EUR/TRY - One of my favorite trades at the moment. Has broken out of a minor bear-flag, which calls for the next part of the decline towards the Double top target near 221.25.

Remember it might be a good idea to harvest some profit on short EUR and long TRY positions near the Double top target.

Longer term I looking for much lower levels, but we are becoming heavily oversold down here and TRY will not be immune to a an increased risk aversion.

VIX Index - Closed outside the upper Bollinger band yesterday, which normally will call for a return towards the Bollinger mid-band, but the close yesterday was pretty negative and we might see a follow-through to the upside towards the 23.65 area before we will see a set-back towards the mid-band.

Dow Jones Industrial - The possible count I showed yesterday at the opening, was quickly invalidated, which leaves us we two possible counts. One is that we already have seen an important top at 12,922 and a decline back towards important support at 12,529 is under way.

The other short term possibility is, that we are in a wave iv of 5, which means we still have one more new high to just above 12,922 in the cards. For the count to stay valid we can't break below 12,719 as that would leave us with an overlap between wave iv and i, which is not allowed.

Crude oil - My preferred count is, that we have begun the next major down-leg in wave [C], but we are in no way out of the woods yet, and the situation in Iran is a major issue here. We are trading just below massive resistance, but we can't close our eyes to the possible inverted S/H/S bottom, that would call for a continuation higher towards 132 if trigger upon a break above 105.80.

The S/H/S neckline is at 103.50, but I will have to see the red resistance line at 105.80 broken before I will make the call for a move towards 132.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on TRY/JPY; CAD/TRY; AUD/TRY and NZD/TRY

2012-02-15T11:33:00.006+01:00

DJI (10 minutes) - I just wanted to show you a very valid short term count for the Dow Industrial Index. If this count is correct we should see a continuation higher towards 12,920 - 13,020 area.
A break below 12,825 will be need to invalidated this count.

Original post belowTRY/JPY - Has had a nice rally since my post on January 25 (see the post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-tryjpy.html). As I said then it might be time harvest a nice profit here at the possible double bottom neckline for a possible set-back towards the 42.55 - 42.70 area. Re-enter long TRY and short JPY here or upon a direct break above the neckline resistance at 44.70 as, that would call for a continuation higher towards at least the 49 area.

I think that the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) is quite overvalued at this point. We still need more evidence, that a deeper decline in these currencies is underway, but a nice way to play an eventual decline could be selling them against TRY.
TRY has far higher yield than any of these currencies, which will give you a premium in addition to the price where you enter the position, if you do it in the forward market.

Lets see what these TRY-Crosses looks like from a technical perspective.

CAD/TRY - Might be in a top-building process, forming a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. It's still very early in the process of building the left shoulder, but a break below the neckline support at 175.50 should trigger a decline towards the 163.10 - 163.20 area.
Ideally the process of forming the left shoulder should take more time, but the shoulders don't have to be symmetrical in neither size nor in duration. However if we are going to see a move higher towards 183.00 in the left shoulder it will make an excellent entry with a stop just above the top of the head at 187.60 on a close basis.

AUD/TRY - Has produced a variation of the "normal" S/H/S-top. However a break below the pink support line at 185.50 should call for a decline towards at least 179.20 and more likely close to or just below the 170.00 area.

A warning, that a break to the downside is coming could be a break below the MACD-Indicators support line, so keep a close eye on that indicator.

NZD/TRY - Could be building a possible Double top. We have a very clear negative divergence on the MACD-Indicator, but we need confirmation in form of a break below the Double top neckline at 137.55, but a break below the minor support line at 145.50 on a close basis could be a pre-warning, that a test of the neckline is coming. The aggressive trader will but TRY and short NZD on a break below 145.50 with a stop just above 148.50 on a close basis.

Please be aware, that non of the above mentioned formation has yet been confirmed, so trade carefully at this point and never ever forget your stop-loss.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY; The VIX-Index; DJI and Shanghai Comp.

2012-02-14T08:17:00.009+01:00

USD Index & EUR/USD - Has both broken their respective resistance and support line, but we still need a break above 97.52 in the USD-Index and a break below 130.25 in EUR/USD to confirm a turnaround.

In EUR/USD be aware of support near 131.10, if this holds a turns us up through 132.85 again we will see a move closer to 134.00 before down. However a clear break below 131.10 will call for a serious test of important support at 130.25.

GBP/USD - The MACD Indicator has clear crossed to the downside calling for a decline towards the 155.00 - 155.80 area.

USD/JPY - Is close to important resistance at 78.35 and a break here we be bullish, but we also need a break above resistance at 79.55 to be able to call for an long term bottom at 75.57.

A break above 79.55 will call for a continuation towards the 82.50 - 82.60 area at least.

VIX Index - Back tested the former wedge resistance line on acting as support and closed almost exactly at the Bollinger mid-band line. I expect the next move to be to the upside again for a move closer to the upper Bollinger band.

Dow Jones Industrial - Is hoovering at triple resistance near 12.876. The divergence on the MACD-Indicator is constantly getting bigger and the VIX is pointing towards a renewed pressure to the downside, but as I said yesterday, as long as support at 12,570 and more importantly 12,529 isn't broken to the downside we are not yet out of the woods.

Shanghai Composite - Found strong resistance near 2,370 as expected and a break below the minor support line at 2,325 would be the trigger for the next move lower towards 2,196 and below.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; USD/CAD; EUR/TRY; VIX-Index and DJI

2012-02-13T08:33:00.011+01:00

USD Index & EUR/USD - The pictures is pretty much the same just inverted to each other. We are still not out of the woods and could still see more USD weakness, but the price action of Friday is a warning, that the ongoing downtrend for USD is vulnerable to a sudden turnaround. For the USD Index we still need a break above 79.55 while we need a break below 130.20 in EUR/USD to confirm a change in trend.

GBP/USD - Maybe the leader here. We have seen a break below the steep rising support line. Ideally we will now see this former support line back tested and resulting in a rejection and a break below 157.25 calling for a deeper decline towards a least the 155 - 155.80 area.

USD/JPY - has been the tricky one. It broke below support at 76.55, but the break was quickly reverted making it a failure break, which normally sparks a fast reversal in the opposite direction. However we need a break above resistance at 78.30 to confirm the above count and a new challenge of the important resistance at 79.50 and a break here we confirm 75.57 as an important long term bottom.

AUD/USD - I still regard the test of 110.80 as an important top. At 110.80 wave [C] = [A] in length, but the reaction from 98.09 became much bigger than first anticipated. However a break below the steep rising support line at 106 and more importantly a break below 103.50 will call for a new challenge of support at 98.09 and probably much lower.

USD/CAD - Stall near support at 99.05 and all we need now is a break above resistance at 100.75 and more importantly 101.75 to confirm the bottom and the next rally higher towards the 104.25 - 105.25 resistance area.

The risk as long as 100.75 isn't broken to the upside is a one last decline towards support close to 98.85 before up again.

EUR/TRY - One of my favorite trades at this point. The minor bear-flag, which has been building is close to break and we should see the next part of the decline towards the double top target near 221.26. Remember to take some profit on long TRY-position and short EUR-positions as we get close to this target.

Long term I could easily see EUR/TRY much lower, but we might just need a bigger correction as we approach the 221.26 target.

VIX Index - Shoot up on Friday and warned, that the uptrend in DJI and S&P 500 isn't due able in the long run. However we are not out of the woods yet. We could easily see a return to the Bollinger mid-band near 19.03, which will force the DJI and S&P 500 higher close towards 12.900, but there isn't much more rum to the upside and a break below 12,743 will clearly ease the upside pressure, but we need a break below 12,570 and 12,529 to confirm the top and call for a much deeper decline.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; Copper; VIX-Index; DJI and Apple

2012-02-10T08:07:00.010+01:00

USD Index - I know I said on Wednesday, that we might see a decline all the way down towards 77, but as I was taking a closer look to the USD-Index I noticed the possibility of an inverted S/H/S bottom with two shoulders on each side. If this is the case we might be very close to the bottom near 78 or maybe even have bottomed out.
We still need a break above the steep declining resistance line and more importantly a break above 79.52 to confirm the bottom, but this is a valid possibility.

Original post below
EUR/USD - Is still fighting with the S/H/S neckline resistance. We saw a failure break yesterday, but the 133.30 resistance just above the neckline resistance at 133.05 held the rally back. As long as support at 131.60 and more importantly 130.25 protects the downside we can't exclude a run closer to the 134 area, but a break below 131.60 will ease the upside pressure considerably

Copper - Dr. Copper is facing neckline resistance near 402, at the same time we can see a bearish divergence building on the MACD indicator. That could mean, that the right shoulder of the possibly big S/H/S top is nearing its end? However we need a break below 389 and more importantly 380 to ease the upside pressure.

VIX Index - Keeps crawling higher and closed above the wedge resistance line, calling for a return to at least 23.45. At the same time the DJI also keeps heading higher making the divergence between the two bigger. Something will soon have to give in... I think it will be DJI topping, but time will show.

Dow Jones Industrial - As stated above the DJI keeps moving higher into the triple resistance, at the same time the MACD-Indicator is non-confirming, the VIX-Index is non-confirming. Dr. Copper might be close to strong resistance, but all this is to no matter if we don't take out support at 12,782 and more importantly 12,529 as that should push us much lower.

Apple - Is just below strong resistance at 500 and it might be a good time to take profit, at least for a return to 361 area and possibly even lower, but only a break below the long term support line at 310 will call for a much deeper decline.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; Vix-Index; DJI; Shanghai Comp. and Gold

2012-02-09T08:20:00.007+01:00

EUR/USD - Is testing the Shoulder/Head/Shoulder neckline resistance near 133.05. Looking at the USD-Index (see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_08.html) we could see further weakness of the USD. If 133.05 breaks the will be a resistance point just above at 133.35, which could force us back down, but only a break below 130.20 will ease the upside pressure a call for a new decline towards strong support in the 125.45 - 126.45 area.

VIX Index - Is at the wedge resistance line and a break above here we leave the upside open for a test of at least 23.65.

Notice the divergence between the VIX-Index and DJI. While the DJI-Index is making new highs, that's not the case for the VIX-Index. Yet an other warning sign, that not all is okay.

Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) - Is facing at triple resistance, the MACD-Indicator is diverging. Trying to call the top, has been very difficult and in my view harder than normal, but times is not normal. QE1 and QE2 from the U.S. and UK. QE-E from ECB. All the money they throw at the economies has to go somewhere. In normal times, banks will lend out most of the money and they will steam up the economic engine, but that is not the case this time around. All the money goes directly into the marketplace lifting equities, commodities, junk bonds and other risky assets, which poses a risk for abnormal volatility.

Enough of that, back to what the charts is telling us. Only a break below minor support at 12,782 and more importantly 12.529 will ease the upside pressure and call for a decline towards 12,250 and possibly even much lower, but for now we will have to concentrate on the upside as long as support at 12,782 stays intact.

Shanghai Composite - Is facing double resistance near 2,370. I does expect this strong resistance to turn the index back down towards support at 2,278 and 2,263 and most likely much deeper longer term.

An unexpected break above 2,370 will lift the index closer to the 2,490 - 2,535 area.

Gold - Is close to an important cross road. Will we see a break above resistance at 1,763 or are we to break below support at 1,709? One of them have to give away soon. I prefer that support at 1,709 is the one to give away and force a more complex correction upon us. Longer term I still prefer a much deeper set-back in the gold prices towards the 1,287 area.

However we will have to respect a break above 1,763 and more importantly 1,803, which will call for a new rally towards 2,036.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/TRY; TRY/JPY and EUR/JPY

2012-02-08T09:09:00.006+01:00

Just a short update for now. I might update some more later in the day...

USD Index - Held resistance at 79.60 without any trouble and broke below support at 78.60 yesterday, which calls for a continuation down towards strong support near 77.

That does fit my view, that the DJI and S&P 500 needs more time in its uptrend (see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/02/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_07.html

EUR/TRY - Is headed for its double top target near 221.25. We saw the nice little bear flag break in late January (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurtry.html and here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/fomc-annouced-yesterday-that-interest.html)

It looks like a little new bear flag might be building and a break below support at 229.40 will call for the next decline towards the 221.25 target.

Resistance is at 232,45.

TRY/JPY has also done very nicely and is headed for the double bottom neckline at 44.55 (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-tryjpy.html) a clear break above here would call for a continuation towards 48.55, but longer term we should be looking at much higher levels.

It might be a good thing to take some profits on and long TRY short JPY positions near 44.55, but be ready to re-enter near 42.60 or if we break above 44.55.

EUR/JPY - The possible bottom I talked aboubt in post of January 27 (see here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012_01_01_archive.html) seems to gather strength, what we need now is a break above the Inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottoms neckline at 102.50, which will open up for a continuation towards 108 (see the daily chart below).

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on AUD/USD; VIX-Index and S&P 500

2012-02-07T16:43:00.005+01:00

AUD/USD - We are currently flirting with resistance near 108, will it hold or not? I must admit, that right now the decline from 110.80 does look corrective, which does call for a new challenge of this strong resistance, which means that 108 most likely will break, but I would be much more careful as we approached strong resistance at 110.80. I really don't see this resistance broken for real. Yes we might see a short term spike through it, but nothing lasting in my humble view.
Maybe the answer is to be found in S&P 500. The correlation between the two has been remarkably high. See my view on S&P 500 below.

Any break below 103.85 will call for a new decline towards 98.50 and likely also 94.00.

VIX Index - Is still locked within the wedge (ending diagonal), but the downside pressure is clearly loosing momentum, but we need a break above the wedge resistance line at 18.60 to confirm, that the wedge is complete for a return back to at least 23.64, but more likely a return to 35.85 will be in the cards when the wedge finally is confirm over.

S&P 500 - As is the case for Dow Jones Industrial, the S&P 500 continues to rally. However the extreme complacency in the market, should call for caution. Still I would not be surprised to see a return to the May high at 1,370 in some kind of a double top pattern. As can be seen above two triangles mirrored in the vertical mid-line does suggest, that we are looking at a couple of weeks more before the termination of the right triangle is complete and a new decline sets in. Again we could spike through 1,370, but be careful as we could easily be looking at some kind of failure up there calling for a change in the trend...

A break below 1,285 will be the first warning, that the ongoing uptrend has matured.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; VIX-Index; DJI; Gold and Crude oil

2012-02-06T11:01:00.009+01:00

Back from a fantastic week of skiing in Austria.

USD Index - Is hoovering around the Pitchfork mid-band and has broken back above the steep falling resistance line from 81.78, which could be a warning, that a bottom is already in place. However we need some more confirmation, but a break above 79.60 will under-pine the possible bottom and call for a move towards 80.35 and a break here will confirm a new rally towards resistance at 81.78.

The risk of cause is, that resistance at 79.60 holds for a break below 78.60, that would call for a decline to the channel bottom near 77.00.

EUR/USD - We might have a top in place, but needs a break below 130.20 to add confidence in the call for a top and a decline towards the 128.58 - 128.78 area. Only a break here confirms the top a calls for a new decline towards strong support in the 125.45 - 126.45 area.
The risk of cause is a break above 132.35, that would call for a continuation towards 134.20 area.

GBP/USD - Found resistance in the area between 157.40 - 158.60 and the following break below the steep support line does leave the downside vulnerable for the next test of support at 152.20.

Dow Jones Industrial - Just keeps raising and is now back at the May 2011 top at 12,876. We might be looking at a double top, but until we break below support at 12,676 we must accept the uptrend.

Looking at the VIX-Index the complacency has now been bigger since mid-2011 and the divergence of the MACD-Indicator continues to develop and be a warning, that this uptrend isn't as strong as it looks.

Gold - might have seen a top at resistance at 1,761. The bearish engulfing candle is clearly a warning, that some kind of top could be in place. The big question whether a more complex correction since the 1,920 high is building or, this is only a minor reaction, before a break above 1,761 will be seen. Only time will tell, but be flexible.

Crude oil - Has decline since the failed test at resistance near 103.46, but the decline is not yet convincing and we still need a break below support at 92.54 to confirm, that the test of 103.46 was an important top and a new decline towards the 78 area.

Risk is a break above resistance at 101.30, that will cause a new rally towards 103.50.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF

2012-01-27T09:05:00.010+01:00

I will be staying in the currency world today.

There will be no updates next week, as I will be in Austria skiing.

EUR/USD - Tried to break above resistance at 131.35 yesterday, but failed. That doesn't mean that the top is in place, but the possibility has gone up considerably. Yesterdays candle was as close to a "Gravestone" candle as you get them, this is normally a topping candle, but it needs confirmation today in form of a red candle and the bigger the better.

Resistance is at 131.35; 132.45 and 133.35, while we have support at 130.30 and 129.30 a break below the later will add confidence to a possible top being in place yesterday and call for a new decline towards strong support in the 125.50 - 126.45 area. USD/JPY - I'm disappointed, that we have moved back below the long term falling trend line. That does leave the impression of a failure break, but as long as we don't break below support at 76.55. A break below support at 76.55 will leave us with no other possibility, than a decline back below 75.57 towards 74.00.

This is not my preferred scenario, which is a break above resistance at 78.35 and more importantly 78.85, which should open up the upside for a continuation towards 82.50 as first target.GBP/USD - Tested resistance yesterday. We could see the retracement from 152.33 move higher towards 158.60, but I would not at all be surprised if resistance at 157.45 protects the upside for a break below 155.30 calling for the next powerful decline below 152.33.

Wave ii of 3 has clearly become an expanded flat, where wave "b" was 1.382 time wave "a" and wave "c" is 1.618 time wave "a" and at the same time we are testing the top of red wave iv of one lessor degree.USD/CAD - Almost made it to the support I mentioned yesterday. At the same time we can see the fighting with the mid-point of the falling channel, which has formed since late November 2011. It's way to early to call for a bottom. We could easily see a firmer test of support at 99.56 and possibly even a decline towards 98.88, before a bottom is in place.EUR/JPY - The Elliott wave count shown is my preferred count for this cross. I do think we are very close to a bottom, but we need more evidence in form of a break above the minor resistance line at 105.50. That said I still think, the risk/reward buying EUR and shorting JPY within the 99.00 - 100.00 area is well worth taking, with a stop just below 97.00.

EUR/CHF - Is just above the floor, that the Swiss central bank (SNB) has defined at 120.00. I would not hesitate one second taking a long EUR short CHF position here. The former head of the Swiss central bank, Hildebrandt, was forced to leave his position, but I'm sure that hasn't changed the position of the board and they will defend the floor viciously. Therefore this is a very low risk high reward possibility, with a stop placed just below 120 say 119.50.

Longer term I looking for a rally higher towards the 128 - 129 area.

One final thing. I do like TRY very much right now. We have already seen a major double top activated in EUR/TRY (see my post here:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurtry.html)
In TRY/JPY we might soon see a double bottom activated (see my post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-analysis-on-tryjpy.html)
CHF/TRY should also represent nice opportunities. I haven't done any analysis on this cross, but if the CHF will weaken from EUR/CHF 120 and I think EUR/TRY will drop to the 221 area, then CHF/TRY should do very well.

Remember that the interest rate in favor of TRY alone makes these crosses attractive and now that the trend is in favor of TRY too these crosses are very attractive

Elliott wave and technical analysis of the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/CAD; EUR/TRY; VIX; DJI; S&P 500; CRB; Gold; Copper and Crude oil

2012-01-26T08:08:00.015+01:00

The FOMC announced yesterday, that interest rates might stay at exceptionnel low levels to 2014. They didn't say, that they will keep them low or for that sake not raise them if inflation begins to pick up. But the financial markets interpreted the statement as they will hold them at 0 - 0.25% until 2014 and that pushed the the risk-scenario to the forefront.

As long as the financial markets sees it this way the risk is, that risky assets will rally higher, but we are not yet quite out of the woods, so regard the price-action today and tomorrow carefully.

USD Index - is now testing the neckline support, The MACD-indicator is at the zero line, this is make it or break it time. If we break below here we will be looking at a deeper decline towards 76.40, but remember we need a break.

The other side of the equation is a break above the steep minor resistance line at 80.00 and more importantly a break above 80.35, that would call for a new rally towards 81.78 again as possibly higher.EUR/USD - Here we are at resistance at 131.35, which needs to hold to avoid a continuation higher towards the next resistance at 133.35.

If however 131.35 holds for a break below 130.30 and more importantly 129.30 we should see a new decline towards strong support in the 125.50 - 126.45 area. USD/CAD - My "X" wave triangle got creamed yesterday and we are most likely looking at some kind of double zig-zag, that should at least reach 99.56, but the risk is a continuation towards 98.88 and 97.20 if the risk-scenario plays out.EUR/TRY - Is tracing out a nice little bear-flag and when it breaks out to the downside we will see the next decline towards the double top target near 221.25.VIX Index - Spiked outside the lower Bollinger Band again, but closed inside the Bollinger Bands again. Take care as we are setting up a sudden trend-reversal. Wedge resistance at 21.50 is key for the next rally higher.

S&P 500 - is right at its 2007 and 2011 highs resistance-line. We apexed yesterday calling for a potential top here at 1,326. Maybe the financial markets realises that the misinterpreted the FED yesterday?

Dow Jones Industrial - We are back at resistance at 12,751. As long as this resistance stays intact I'm still looking for a break below support at 12,500 to confirm the top and the next decline lower.

However risk is clearly a break above 12,751, which will open for a rally higher towards 12,807.

CRB Index - Closed right at its resistance at 316.30. As I said yesterday a clear break above here will open for a continuation higher towards the 339 area (risk-scenario). While a break below 309 and more importantly 306.80 is needed to invalidate further upside progress and call for a decline back towards support near 293.65.

Gold - Shoot up through resistance, which has opened for a continuation towards the next resistance at 1,761 and maybe 1,802.

We also move back into the raising channel back from late 2008, which is bullish, but remember this is a monthly chart (see below), so the final call is still out in the open.

Gold Monthly

Copper - Here too we keep climbing, which points towards a more risk-on behavior, but copper is heavily overbought, so we have to tread carefully up here.

Crude oil - Is holde below the broken support line on acting as resistance, but we need a break below 97.40 to take of the upside pressure and a call for a deeper decline towards 92.54 and likely lower.

A break back above 101 will call for a new test of resistance near 103.40 and probably higher near 106.40.

Sorry for being a bit twisted today, but we are right at an important cross-road, which can lead both ways...

Elliott wave analysis on TRY/JPY

2012-01-25T11:43:00.005+01:00

TRY/JPY - Due to my prior call for the TRY to rally against EUR, the break above the long term trend line resistance in USD/JPY gave me the idea, that this potentially could be an interesting cross.

As can be seen on the chart above, we can count a five wave decline since the 98.70 high back in October 2007. Wave 5 down turned into an expanding diagonal, where we have some interesting relationships between wave i - iii and v as wave v became almost exactly equal in length to wave

i-iii. At the same time wave v also became 1.618 time longer than wave iii adding confidence in the possible double bottom scenario.

I'm looking for a test of the double bottom neckline resistance at 44.55 soon and if this resistance breaks we will be looking for a continuation towards at least 48.65, but longer term we should be looking for a rally into the area between 54 and 65.

The interest differential between TRY and JPY in the favor of TRY does make this a very nice cross to stay with for the longer term.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; VIX-index; DJI; SP500; CRB-Index; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-25T09:16:00.011+01:00

USD Index - I'm still looking for the neckline support near 79.25 to protect the downside for a new rally higher towards 82.60 and 87.50 later on.
However the risk is of cause a clear break below the neckline support, which will delay the upside progress and call for a decline towards support near 76.40 before the next rally higher.

EUR/USD - We are currently testing the resistance area between 130.85 - 131.35, which I expect will hold for the next decline towards strong support near 125.50. Long term I still prefer a much deeper decline, but as long as support at 125.50 hasn't given away this is only speculations.

The short term risk is a break above 131.35, which will call for a continuation higher towards 133.35 the former neckline support, which has now turned into resistance.

USD/JPY - We finally got the break above the long term falling trend line resistance near 77.50 and we should see a test of the neckline resistance near 78.85 and a break above here will confirm the next rally towards 82.80.

In the bigger picture we should now have seen an important bottom at 75.57 (the call is still a bit early...) and a rally back towards the apex near 115 should be see.

VIX index - We now have a second close within the Bollinger Band, which confirms the test of 18.16 as being the bottom. We should soon see the mid-band near 21.13 and wedge resistance near 22.16 broken for a move higher towards 24.40 and 26.40 as the next resistance points.

Dow Jones Industrial - We have seen a small throw over and resistance at 12,752 cap the rally from 11,231. However we need a break below 12,500 to confirm the top and call for renewed downside pressure towards support at 11,231 again and longer term even lower towards the neckline support near 10,600.

Be aware of a clear break above 12,752 as that would confirm the underlying uptrend and call for a continuation higher towards 12,807 as the next resistance.

S&P 500 - We will be meeting the Apex of the "Triangle" formation today and this often marks the top of the triangle-thrust. We can also see, the the rising supports are broken one by one and risk clearly is turning to the downside. Be alert up here, but only a break below 1,300 will add value to the call for a top.

In the bigger picture (see the chart below) we haven't seen the resistance-line from the 2007 high and 2011 high broken as is the case with the DJI-Index, this should be a warning too.

Risk of cause is a clear break above the long term resistance line at 1,328, which would call for a continuation higher towards the 1,335 - 1,340 area.

S&P 500 Weekly

CRB Index - Is at double resistance again. I still favor this double resistance to protect further upside progress and a break below 309 and more importantly 306.80, which will invalidate the possible inverted S/H/S formation which has been building since November 2011. For this formation to be activated it will take a break above neckline resistance at 316.15. A break above 316.15 (not the preferred outcome) will call for a continuation higher towards 339.

Gold - Here too we have see double resistance at 1,681 protect the upside, but we need a break below 1,644 to confirm the top and a call for a decline back towards the neckline support near 1,520. The risk is of cause a break above 1,681 that would call for a rally higher towards 1,750 and 1,800 and possibly even higher longer term.

Crude oil - Has broken below the rising support line since October 2011. Risk is again turning towards the downside, but we need a break below support at 97.40 and more importantly 92.52 to confirm the next big decline towards 75.

Risk is of cause a break above 103.40 and more importantly the resistance line near 106.40, that would call for a rally back towards the 114 - 115 area.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index: EUR/USD; VIX-Index; DJI; TLT; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-24T09:21:00.010+01:00

USD Index - Is once again testing the strong neckline support near 79.25. The price action following this test will tell us a lot about the future for USD. I still expect this support to provide a springboard for the next rally in the USD, but we will have to see what happens down here.

EUR/USD - Should the EUR be stronger than the USD? At this point I don't think so. However every time the EU seems to finally reach a solution to a problem, this time it's Greece and the private investor haircut, the EUR rallies, but new troubles is already stirring at the EU and ECB. This time it's Portugal. The 10-Y yield is at all time high near Portuguese (see the chart just below).

EUR/USD is sitting just below strong resistance in the 130.85 - 131.35 area, which I expect will hold for a break below 128.69, that will confirm renewed downside pressure.

If however resistance at 131 unexpectedly breaks we would be headed for 132.35.

10 Y Portuguese bond yield.

VIX Index - Closed back into the Bollinger Band and we could have a bottom in place for a break above ending diagonal (wedge) resistance line near 22.15. A break above 22.15 will call for a rally higher towards 34.74.

However as long as we stay below 21.24 and more importantly 22.15 we must accept the possibility of a new low below 28.16, but there isn't much more room to the downside.

Dow Jones Industrial - Tested resistance at 12.751, but couldn't break it. Wave c of Y is now equal in length to wave a of Y also raising the potential of a top being close at hand. You know I think this rally is unsustainable, but as long as support at 12,463 and more importantly 12,311 isn't broken we must accept that the trend is up.

10 Y U.S Bonds (TLT) - After some indecision it finally seems as we are headed towards support near 109.80 (see my post from January 4'th here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_04.html)

A break below 109,80 will call for a much deeper decline.

Gold - Is testing double resistance in this area. I still think the resistance near 1,680 will protect the upside for a clear break below 1,644 and more importantly 1,625, which would call for a new decline towards strong support near 1,520.

A clear break above 1,680 will call for a new rally towards 1,920 and possibly 2,036.

Crude oil - Is attempting a break out. We need to see some follow through, but I will be looking for a decline towards 92.52 if we break below 98.70 and more importantly 97.40. The really big test will be if we can manage a break below 92.52, which would call for a decline towards the neckline support near 77.50.

Risk is still a break above the resistance area between 103.75 - 104.75 and more importantly 106.50 which would call for a new rally towards the 114 - 115 area.

Elliott wave on the Vix-index; DJI; DJT and S&P 500

2012-01-23T07:08:00.007+01:00

Lets stay a little with the U.S. stock indices today.
I have been quite puzzled with the continued strength of these markets. The last time I saw something like this, was when FED orchestrated its QE 1 (it was not as extreme the second time around). All indicators was flashing the red light, but stock indices kept going up. It's is same this time around, but this time it's not FED doing the QE, this time it's QE European style orchestrated by ECB and the LTRO-program. These programs might do the job in the beginning, but they never last and when turn comes, and believe me it will come, the decline will just be much faster and deeper than it else would have been.
Lets look at some charts and see what red lights we have flashing.

VIX Index - We are now in the low 18 area as expected Friday. More important we broke and closed below the lower Bollinger Band, which is a warning of an imminent bottom of some kind. We still need a clear break above the wedge resistance-line near 22.50 to confirm an important bottom in place and a return to 34.75.Dow Jones Industrial - Took out resistance at 12.660 with trouble at all. That of cause should be of concern and might force us higher towards 12,762 as first target and maybe even higher towards 12,754 and 12,876, but be careful if we break back below former resistance at 12,660 as the break could have been a failure-break.
However we need a break below 12,463 and more importantly 12,311 to confirm, that an important top is in place for a much deeper decline.

Dow Jones Transportation - Here too a large Should-Head-Shoulder top is forming. We might see a move slightly higher towards 5,387, but any break below former resistance now support at 5,066 will be a warning, that an important top is in place and a decline towards the neckline support near 3,975 might be developing.

S&P 500 - Haven't broken above its resistance line from late 2007 to mid-2011 yet. I doubt it will, but we must respect the uptrend for now. That said a break below support at 1,293 will indicate, that an important top is in place for a much deeper decline towards the neckline support near 1,100 longer term.

The triangle shape marked by the black lines will apex (the two lines meet) within the next couple of days, that often marks the end of a move.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; VIX-Index; DJI; Shanghai Comp.; Junk-Bonds; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-20T08:31:00.012+01:00

You might have noticed that, an "Unknown" reader has had some issues with my analysis always being wrong. I surely hope they are not, but I just wanted you all to know, that you always are welcome to comment on whatever I'm writing. I might have overlooked something and a dialog is always nicer than a monologue.
So feel free to comment, but not only when you dislike what I'm doing, that adds nothing of value to me or you for that matter. Have a great weekend.
USD Index - Broken below a rising channel (just as Unknown wrote yesterday), which happens to be more or less equivalent to the break above 128.80 in EUR/USD. That means an other test of the neckline support near 79.25 (near 131 in EUR/USD) is in the cards. I still think this support will hold for a new rally towards the inverted S/H/S formations target near 82.60.

EUR/USD - To my surprise we broke above resistance at 128.80, which calls for a move closer to resistance in the 130.85 - 131 area. The major Pitchfork I have showed a couple of times worked again. Support at 125.50 (not quite tested) held but I do expect, that we will have a new test of this support area, after the minor rally towards the 130.85 - 131 area.

USD/JPY - Is working on a new challenge of the long term falling downtrend line. This downtrend needs to be broken to call the test of 75.57 an important bottom and a rally towards 82.85 as first target, but longer term we would be looking at much higher targets. The risk is, that the downtrend once again does its job and turn USD/JPY down for a break below 76.50, which would call for a decline closer to 74.00.VIX Index - Here too the ending diagonal resistance line turn us down for a new low, and we could see a move even lower towards the low 18 area, but any break above the resistance line and resistance at 23.44 will call for a rally back towards at least 34.75 and probably even higher.

Dow Jones Industrial - Is at the ultimate decision point. We have resistance from the 2007 and 2011 high coming in. We have a wedge formation, which normally have 2/3 chance of coming through and finally divergence on the MACD-indicator. I do think those odds favor a top soon and a break below 12,474 and more importantly 12,311 for a decline back towards the neckline support (pink). However risk of cause is a clear break above resistance here calling for a new rally towards the May 2011 high at 12,876.

To me this poses a low risk selling opportunity here with a very tight stop at 12,675. It doesn't come much better than this.

Shanghai Composite - Is headed for resistance at 2,372, which is where wave c of 2 will equal wave a of 2 and we have multiple resistance here. Once this resistance is tested I would look for renewed downside pressure.

Junk Bond (JNK) - Is at a major decision point. I expect resistance at 39.10 to hold for a break below support at 38.50 for the next decline towards the mid-32 area. However a break above 39.10 will lift us up to the next resistance at 39.60, but I still regard the upside as limited.

Gold - Resistance in the 1,670 - 1,680 area seem to be to much for gold to handle for now. I still expect a break below support at 1,629 soon to confirm a new decline towards the strong neckline support near 1,520. Only a clear break above 1,680 will lift the spirit a call for a rally towards the 1,780 - 1,795 area at least, but that is not my preferred view at this point.

Crude oil - Is trapped between support at 97.70 and resistance at 103.50. I still favor a downside resolution, but is clearly aware of the risk of a break above 103.50 and more importantly a break above long term resistance line at 106.65, which will open up the upside completely.

However as I said I'm looking for a downside resolution with a break below 99.40 and more importantly 97.70 calling for a new decline towards 92.50 again.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; DJI; Shanghai Comp.; CRB; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-19T08:46:00.008+01:00

EUR/USD - Is trying to break above resistance at 128.55, but I think it will be a failure. I'm looking for a break back below 128.30 and more importantly 127.75 to confirm the failure and call for a new decline towards strong support near 125.50 (see the monthly chart below).
If the break above 128.55 is sustained with a continuation above 128.85 we must accept a move towards 131, before renewed downside pressure can be expected. (not my preferred view)

Dow Jones Industrial - Is doing a brilliant job, holding on to its gains despite massive divergence and strong resistance. I still don't like it up here. I do think the technical picture is as ugly as you get them, but as long as support at 12,453 and more importantly support at 12,311 protects the downside, the upside pressure stays intact.

A break below 12,311 will call for a decline towards 11,735 and lower.

Shanghai Composite - Is still working on its wave 2 correction, which should hit closer to the 2,335 area from there risk again turns to the downside.

CRB Index - Was rejected at the channel resistance line and I think we are developing a minor topping pattern calling for a new decline to test the strong support at 293. A break below 306.75 will trigger the minor topping pattern and call for the test of 293.

Gold - Is holding on to its gains too, but here to I don't like it up here. We are facing strong resistance in this area and a break below 1,625 will ease the upside pressure for a new decline towards strong support near 1,525.

Crude oil - Here too we are facing strong resistance in this area, but we need a break below 99.80 and more importantly 97.70 to ease the upside pressure for a decline towards 92.50 and probably lower will be seen.

Elliott Wave on EUR/USD; The Vix index and Dow Jones Industrial

2012-01-18T17:02:00.006+01:00

Today there will only be a short update.

EUR/USD - Is back into the resistance area between 128.15 and 128.55. Overall I expect this resistance area to hold for a new decline towards strong support at 125.45. We have to observe the current consolidation for clues telling us, this is more than just a minor consolidation. If we break clearly above 128.55 we might be in for a bigger retracement towards the 131 area.

We do need a break below 127.10 to ease the upside pressure and a new decline towards 125.45.The Vix-Index - Tested the ending diagonals resistance line, but couldn't break it on its first go. I do expect a new test soon and if we break above the resistance line at on this test we can conclude, that we have seen the termination of the ending diagonal and a new rally towards at least 34.50 - 35.00 have begun.Dow Jones Industrial - Is hanging on to its gains, but I still think, that these lofty areas will be to much and we should soon see a break below 12,311 confirming that we have see a top and are on the way down towards 11,733 and 11,231 and the next supports.

Longer term I'm still looking for a test of the strong neckline support near 10,575.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on AUD/USD; NZD/USD and some Uranium stocks

2012-01-17T09:15:00.009+01:00

Today I will look at some currency crosses and then step a little out of my normal comfort zone and look at some individual Uranium stocks.

AUD/USD - Is just below pretty strong resistance and is posing a low risk trading opportunity here. A short AUD position with a stop just above 107.55 is very close to as good a risk/reward trade as you get them in this cross.

Even if this should turn out to be a wave 4-triangle, which I very much doubt, then we still need wave-E of the triangle to form, meaning we as wave-E develops could lower the stop to just above or at the entry point of the short Aussie position.NZD/USD - Is in pretty much the same position as AUD/USD. We are facing strong overhead resistance near 80.40 and stretching up to 81. Selling near or in this area will pose a low risk opportunity with at stop just above 82.45.

I will look for a break below 78.60 and more importantly 77.65 to confirm the ending of the rising wedge calling for a decline towards at least 74.60.Cameco (CCJ) - Here we can see a nice break above the falling trend line and the 100 day moving average. I would not be surprised to see a back-test of the broken resistance line now acting as support near 18.75, but that should be a low risk buying opportunity with a stop just below 17.

The potential should be a move towards 23, but I would expect a move closer to the 29-area longer term.Uranium Resources (URRE) - Is not as clear as Cameco, but a break above resistance at 0.86, should lift us to at least 0.95 and more likely towards strong resistance near 1.10.

Stop should be placed just below 0.785 when 0.86 breaks.Uranium Participation (U.TO) A Canadian stock - Has broken very nicely to the upside from a long base formation calling for a rally towards 7.60 and possibly even 8.50.

Here to I would be surprised to see a back-test of the broken resistance line at 6.00 now acting as support. I would have a stop just below 5.70.Laramide Resources (LAM.TO) Canadian stock too - Here too we have seen a very nice break above the resistance line at 0.80 and should longer term see a move towards 1.20, but we could easily see a move towards 1.50.

Again we could see a back-test of the broken resistance line at 0.80 now acting as support. Place stop on any long position just below 0.72.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; USD/CAD; GBP/USD; AUD/USD; EUR/TRY; DJI; VIX; SSEC; CRB: GOLD and CRUDE OIL

2012-01-16T08:42:00.017+01:00

USD-Index - I'm still looking for the next move higher towards resistance at 82.60. Longer term I looking for a move towards the Inverted S/H/S target near 87.50.
Short term I would like to see upside momentum build as we are approaching 82.60.

EUR/USD - Here I'm looking for a move towards strong support at 125.45. If this support is clearly broken we should be looking at a much deeper decline towards the 118 area and possibly even below.

But first be aware of support at 125.45 and consider taking some profit there and righting your stops.

USD/JPY - Not much to add here. We are still below the long term falling trend line. As long as we can't break above this trend line risk is for one more decline closer to 74.00. That said I still slightly favor, that an important bottom was seen at 75.50, but we need that break above 77.70 and more importantly 78.20 to confirm that the bottom is in place.

USD/CAD - I'm still looking for a break above the B-wave triangle resistance line near 102.85 soon, which will open up for a thrust towards the 117-118 area longer term.

GBP/USD - Is in a slow break-down and support at 151.50 should tested soon. If this support breaks too we are looking at a much deeper decline longer term, which to take us down to the 142 area and ultimately below the end of wave [A] at 134.98.

AUD/USD - Hasn't done much lately, but I still expect, what looks like a triangle, but mostly isn't to break below support at 98.57 to confirm the next move lower towards 80.65 and even lower longer term.

Only a break above 107.57 - 107.64 area will invalidate the downside for a new rally towards 110.80 first.

EUR/TRY - The decline after the break below the double top neckline at 240.50 is looking very promising. The double top target is found at 221.25, from where we should expect a rebound towards the 231.50 - 236 area.

VIX - We could very well have seen the ending diagonal ended withe the test of 20.05, however we still need a break above 23.75 to confirm the bottom and a return towards the 48 area longer term.

Dow Jones Industrial - Seems like we have a top in place at 12.514, however we need a break below 12.294 and more importantly 12,140 to confirm the top for a new decline towards the neckline near 10,550 area longer term.

Shanghai Composite - Halted right at the resistance suggested and the question now is whether this was just wave a or the end of wave 2? I slightly favor that it only was wave a and we now are working on wave b down to at least 2,196 and a clear break below here would call for a return to 2,130 area in a flat correction, before the last leg higher in wave c.

CRB Index - Has meet strong overhead resistance near 317 and I would now be looking at a move towards support at in the 293 area. Longer term I'm still looking for a break below the strong support at 293 for a decline towards the ending of wave [A] and below.

Gold - Here too we have tested strong overhead resistance near 1,650 and we should now be ready to retest the neckline support near 1,520 and longer term I'll be looking for a break below that support for a continuation towards 1,489 and even 1,282.

Crude Oil - The picture is pretty much the same as everything else. Tested overhead resistance near 103.50 and everything points towards a top and a test of support at 92.50 soon for the next big decline.

The Iran matter hasn't disappeared, but longer term I don't thing that really is something to take very seriously, but I might just be wrong on that point, which is why you will need a well defined stop on short positions in Crude oil.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; GBP/USD; Dow Industrial; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-12T09:00:00.008+01:00

EUR/USD - Not much to add here. We have two possible short term counts. I slightly favor the count calling for new lows below 126.60 soon for the next decline towards strong support near 125.45.

The other count is, that we have only seen wave A and B in a flat correction, which will call for one more mini rally into the 128.20 - 128.50 area, before the next move down is seen.

GBP/USD - Has broken down from support at 153.60 and we are now headed for the next support at 151.70. If support at 151.70 gives away too the downside springs wide open for a decline towards the 142 area.

There is an option we have to consider at this point, which is, that wave "D" of the triangle finds its end near 151.70, which will call for a wave "E" rally towards 157.60 and maybe even 159.50. That's not my preferred count, but we must be aware of the possibility.

Dow Jones Industrial - Decision time is getting closer and closer. I still think the upside is very limited at this point and that we should soon see a break below the minor support line at 12,399 for a decline towards 11,735 and a break below here confirms the top for a move toward the 10,610 area, where we find strong neckline support.

Could we see one more rally above 12,514? Yes, but it will not last long and you should be aware of a failure break to the upside, which will turn us down hard.

Gold - Here too we are close to a decision point. I do favor a top soon and a break below 1,629 for a decline back to the strong neckline support near 1,520. Longer term I still expect this neckline to be broken for a continuation towards 1,431 and even 1,289.

Crude oil - The overall picture is the same. We are at or very close to the decision point, meeting resistance here in the 103.30 - 104.60 area and even strong just above at 106.80. I do expect these resistances levels to protect the upside for a break below 98.80 confirming a decline towards support at 92.50 and a break here will cause a much deeper decline.

Still we have to be aware, that an escalation between the US and Iran could cause a moon spike in oil prices, so don't enter a short position without a protective stop. Money management is key to your success

GBP/USD - Is attempting a break down

2012-01-11T13:05:00.002+01:00

GBP/USD - Is attempting a breakdown from support at 153.60 a clear break below here will mean a continuation lower towards at least 151.70, but probably even much lower, with the next strong support in the 142 area.
Longer term the [B]-wave triangle should cause a decline below the ending point of wave [A] at 136.87.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; DJI; VIX; Shanghai Comp.; CRB; Gold; Silver; Copper and Crude oil

2012-01-11T08:58:00.019+01:00

USD-Index - Respected support at 80.70 very nicely and we could be on the road for the next rally higher towards resistance at 82.60.

EUR/USD - Here too we saw resistance at 128.15 well respected, which means we could be headed down through support at 127.20, confirming the next decline towards the 125.45 area, where we will find the next very strong support.

USD/CAD - Stalled at resistance at 103.20 to gather new strength for the next challenge of this resistance. When resistance at 103.20 breaks we are looking at a new rally towards the 117 - 118 area.

Short term we are back testing the steep former resistance-line, which has now turned into support in the 101.20 - 101.30 area. Buying in this area represents a low-risk buying opportunity as we not allowed to break below support at 100.49, so stops can be placed just below 100.49 say 100.40, which will leave you with a risk of just above 1%. You don't get it much better than that.

AUD/USD - Is also close to its strong overhead resistance, which I expect will hold for a break below support at 98.55 which should trigger the next deep decline towards support just below 94.00 and in the 80 area longer term (longer term is from 3-6 months).

A break above 105 would come as a big surprise to me, but only above 107.52 invalidates the downside pressure for a new rally towards the 110.80 high.

Dow Jones Industrial - Reached just above 12,500 yesterday and backed off. Is a top in place? It's to early to say. We need a break below support at 12,284 to confirm the top. However the rally to 12,514 was followed by multiple divergences at the MACD-indicator telling us, that this is a weak rally and that we should be careful in these lofty areas. VIX-Index - Made a slightly lower low at 20.05, thereby fulfilling all demands to end the ending diagonal. However we need a break above 21.78 and more importantly 23.73 to confirm that an important bottom is in place.

The market has in my view become way too complacent lately and this is a dangerous cocktail and risk is much higher to the downside and the possibility of further gains.

Shanghai Composite - Here to we have meet resistance near 2,300. See how all markets are lining up at resistance or supports. I do think we are close to a very volatile period.

CRB-Index - Here too we are at strong resistance, which could and most likely will turn focus to the downside again. Longer term I'm still looking for a more firm test of strong support in the 292 - 293 area, but if this area breaks we are looking at 247 as the next target.

Gold - Here too we are at resistance, ready to be rejected and facing a new decline towards support at 1,520 and likely lower towards 1,489 and 1,281 longer term.

Silver - Here too we are back test the former support-line, which has now become resistance. I expect resistance in this area will hold for the next challenge of strong support in the 26 area, but ultimately I expect this support to be broken for a move lower towards the next strong support in the 21 area.

Copper - Do I have to say it? Facing resistance and is most likely to be rejected for a decline below 337 calling for a new test of the neckline support near 305.

Crude Oil - At resistance too. A Diverging MACD-indicator. Again the most likely outcome is a rejection here at resistance for a decline below support at 100.30 and more importantly 98.30 calling for a new decline towards strong support at 92.50.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; Dow Industrial; VIX-Index; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-10T11:51:00.007+01:00

USD-Index - Is still well within its rising channel. We should see support near 80.70, which I expect will protect the downside for the next rally towards the 82.60.

EUR/USD - The ongoing minor correction should meet resistance in the 128.15 - 128.53 area, which I expect will protect the upside for the next decline towards the mid 125 area.

Dow Jones Industrial - There is not much to add here. We are still looking at overhead resistance in the 12,400 - 12,500 area, which I expect will protect the upside for a break below 12,140, which will confirm, that a top is in place for a decline towards 11,735 and more likely 11,230.

VIX - Index - We just need one more new low to end the ending diagonal, which has dominated the picture since August 2011. The ending diagonal warns of a major decline in the DJI, once it's done.

Gold - Here too we are close to overhead resistance in the 1,643 - 1,663 area, which I expect will turn prices down again for a new test of the neckline support near 1,520.

Longer term I still looking for a decline towards 1,450 and 1,289.

Crude Oil - Here too we are facing overhead resistance near the 104 area, which I expect to hold for the next decline through 98.20 for a decline towards 92.50 and lower longer term.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/TRY

2012-01-09T14:24:00.003+01:00

At the last trading day of 2011 I posted the following analysis on EUR/TRY: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/12/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurtry.html

The trigger was a decline below 240.00 and we got just that last week. The close below 240 hast not only triggered a double top with a target near 221.00. It most likely also confirmed, that wave 5 of an ending diagonal, which has been developing since early 2006 had come to and end with the throw-overs in August and October 2011.

Trading in TRY is one of the more delightful currencies, as the interest pick-up out-strip EUR by 5-6 pct. depending on the period traded.
The game plan therefore should be buying TRY selling EUR on a three months forward contract with a stop at 249.00, with a take profit near the 221.00 area.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; Dow Industrial; Shanghai Comp.; Junk Bonds (JNK); Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-09T08:20:00.012+01:00

USD-Index - Is fighting a bit with the resistance created by the two tops in late 2010 at 81.44 and in early 2011 at 81.14, but it should just be a matter of time before we break through for a continuation higher towards 82.60.
Long term I'm still looking for the Inverted S/H/S target in the 87 area to be tested.

EUR/USD - Has almost tested the short term target at 126.45. We might see a minor correction near term towards the 128.12 - 128.55 area, but overall the direction is down and is should be a matter of time before we take out 126.45 and more importantly 125.55, which will call for a continuation towards the 118 area and lower.

GBP/USD - Is again testing support and a clear break below 153.60 and more importantly 151.70 will call for the next serious decline towards 142.30 and below 135 longer term.

USD/CAD - Seems like we nailed this cross pretty good. All we need now is a break above 103.20 to confirm the thrust out of the "X" wave triangle and a rally higher towards the 117 area.

Short term we might see a minor pullback, but again it should be a question of time before we break above resistance at 103.20.

Dow Jones Industrial - Is facing strong overhead resistance. Yes we might see a move closer towards 12.500, but I still think we are in dangerous high areas here and we look for selling opportunities in this area or more conservative upon a break below 12.140.

Shanghai Composite - We have nailed this one pretty well too. We are already close to resistance at 2,240, but with the speed we have seen until now, I would not be overly surprised to see a mover higher towards 2,302 before the next real pressure to the downside is seen

Junk Bonds (JNK) - It's decision time. Overall the bigger picture is still dominated by the Diamond Top and should cause a break below the support line at 38.00 for the next serious decline towards at least 32.70 but longer term I looking for a move towards 31 and possibly even 25.50 again.

Gold - Should also be ready for its next decline. A break below 1,603 will indicate, that the next decline has begun. Until the break below 1,603 we seem to be locked inside the 1,603 - 1,623 range.

Crude Oil - Even though Iran is still spooking, I do think that strong overhead resistance in the 103.50 - 104 area will hold firm for a break below 98.50 to confirm the next attack on support at 92.50 and deeper.

However we must accept the risk of a sudden spike, if Iran does mean business and close the Hormuz strait. To be honest I don't think, that Iran will take this steep an walk into a conflict with the US, but we can never know for sure.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis of the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; USD/CAD; Dow Industrials; Shanghai Comp.; TLT; Gold; Copper and Crude oil

2012-01-06T08:29:00.015+01:00

USD-Index - We finally got the close over resistance at 80.70, which should open the way for a continuation higher towards the next resistance at 82.60.
The Inverted S/H/S target is at 87.50, so don't get fouled, by the corrections on the way higher.

EUR/USD - Is headed for support in the 126.45 - 127.45 area. I do expect a move closer to 126.45, than a temporary stop at 127.45.

Longer term we should see a much deeper decline, but we do have some very strong supports, that have to be cleared first. The first is at 126.45 and then one, which is now at 125.45 and rising.

USD/JPY - I'm not at all sure of the count shown above, but it's a valid count. However we soon need to break above the long term falling trend line resistance at 77.95, if not I'm sure we will see a new challenge of the bottom at 75.50 and most likely a continuation deeper towards 74 as next support.

USD/CAD - Has broken above the minor steep falling resistance line, which does add faith to my preferred count, that we saw the end of wave e and X at 100.72 for a thrust out of the "X" wave triangle soon.

Longer term I expect a move higher towards the 117 - 118 area.

Dow Industrial - I have problem with my charts of S&P 500, so for now I will switch to the Dow Jones Industrial instead.

Is facing strong overhead resistance near the 12,500 area, which I expect will turn us down through 12,221 and more importantly 12,140 which will confirm, that wave 2 is over and wave 3 down has begun. (See my long term count here http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on_04.html)

Shanghai Composite - Did make a small new low at 2,133.75 today and has closed back over the small step resistance line. That tells us, that wave v of the ending expanding diagonal is done a little before the ideal target near 2,100. We should now look for a return towards 2,240 in the coming days. This correction does not alter my long term view, which ultimately calls for a break below wave [A] at 1,664.

TLT (20Y US bonds) - Seems to have broken down and could be headed for strong support in the 109 area. However we need confirmation, that the break is valid and need to see a break below 115.80 to confirm the break.

The big question to be asked right now is if we are looking at some kind of collapse like we saw in late 2008 and early 2009? It can't be ruled out. If we does there is only be one place to hide and that would be is USD.

Gold - Is also facing strong overhead resistance here. We could see Gold rise a little more, but overall the risk is to the downside again for a new test of support near 1,522.

Longer term I'm looking for a deeper correction towards 1,289 and possibly even the 1,089 area.

Copper - Has meet resistance and I expect a break below the minor support at 336.70 soon to confirm a new decline towards strong neckline support near 306 and a break below here will open for a decline towards the 131 area. Of cause there will be some tough hurdles along the way to the S/H/S target.

Crude Oil - Is banging its head against strong resistance too. I still favor this resistance will hold and turn Crude prices down again through 98.20 and more importantly 92 calling for a new decline towards 75.

That said we have to be aware that an escalation between the US and Iran could force Crude prices up towards the 114 - 115 area in a state of panic.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; AUD/USD; USD/CAD; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; Gold; Silver and Crude oil

2012-01-05T10:42:00.011+01:00

USD-Index - The inverted S/H/S neckline held as expected and a break above 80.70 should mark the next rally towards resistance at 82.60. The inverted S/H/S target is in the 87.50 area.

EUR/USD - Couldn't even make it to the 131 area before loosing steam. We should now be headed towards the next support area between 127.45 - 126.45 (closer to 126.45).

The risk on start of the year finished very quickly. We will see these risk on periods from time to time, but they should be pretty short lived. Not necessarily as this period was.

AUD/USD - Yes it looks like a triangle, but I don't think it's a triangle in Elliott wave terms, meaning it's a wave 4 calling for one more new rally above 110.80. My preferred count is that we saw an important top and the ending of wave [C] at 110.80, where wave [C] was equal to wave [A] and we are now in the early stages of a major decline towards the 85 area and more likely the high 79 area. Longer term I'm looking for a continuation lower towards the low 70 area (see my yearly post here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2012/01/elliott-wave-and-technical-analysis-on.html

Short term we could make it back to the 104.25 - 105.45 as long as support at 98.80 holds firm. However I find the current price-levels pretty lofty and would rather be selling up here, than bet on 105.45 being seen.

USD/CAD - Here we can see an Elliott wave triangle, but in this case it's an triangle "X" wave. I expect this triangle will ultimately break out to the top-side calling for a rally towards the 117 - 118 area. Therefore the current level should mark a low risk buying area, with a low risk stop-loss below support at 100.49.

S&P 500 - We could still see a move higher towards the 1,292 - 1,299 area, but we are at very lofty levels here and at the same time the market has become very complacent, which isn't a healthy cocktail, but we need a break below 1,248.60 to confirm a move lower towards the 1,100 neckline support.

Shanghai Composite - We are headed for support in the 2,100 area, which should end an expanding diagonal and set the stage for a corrective move back towards the 2,240 area.

Gold - almost made it back to resistance near 1,643. Is a top in place? it could be, but we need a break below the steep rising minor channel at 1,608, which would call for a decline towards 1,565 and possibly even lower.

Silver - It has been a while since we have looked at silver. I have presented the long term count I favor above. As can be seen, an important top was seen just below 50.00 and we are now in a correction, where we have already corrected 50% of the rally from 3.51 to 49.53, but I would not be surprised to see the 61.8% retracement target at 21.13 tested fairly soon.

Only a break above resistance at 32.01 and more importantly 33.63 will ease the downside pressure.

Crude oil - We are still holding below important resistance at 114.50 and it actually looks as some kind of top is in the making. However we still need a break below support at 98.36 to confirm the top and a decline towards support at 92.50.

A break above 114.50 will set up a continuation towards the 114 - 115 area, but this is not my preferred scenario.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on USD-Index; EUR/USD; Dow Industrial; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; TLT - 20Y US Bonds; Gold and Crude oil

2012-01-04T08:12:00.013+01:00

USD-Index - Is once again back testing the inverted S/H/S neckline. I still expect this neckline to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 80.70, which should spark the next rally towards at least 82.60.
At no time should we see a move below 78.79 as that would question the possible inverted S/H/S pattern.

EUR/USD - The EUR gained strength as the year has begun with a note of "risk on", but we are still well within the falling trend in EUR/USD. Yes we could see a move towards the 131.30 - 131.65 area, but that should only provide a nice EUR-selling opportunity for the next decline towards the 127.45 - 126.45 area. (See the daily EUR/USD chart below).

Dow Jones Industrial - This will be my last yearly chart this time around. I do think the count I have presented here is valid and it does call for a much deeper decline towards 5,350 area in wave C.

We are currently facing strong resistance in the 12,400 - 12,600 area, which I expect will turn us down through 11,735 again for a test of neckline support near 10,600.

S&P 500 - I do think we are headed towards resistance in the 1,292 - 1,299 area, but I still find these levels very lofty and think the market once again has become way to complacent. I would look for selling opportunities in this lofty area or wait for the more conservative break below support at 1,248.60 for the next decline towards strong neckline support near 1,100.

Shanghai Composite - I'm still looking for one more decline closer to the 2,100 area, that most likely will end the decline from 2,534 and call for a correction back towards the 2,240 area.

Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels. Ultimately we should see a break below the bottom of wave [A] at 1,664.

TLT (20Y US Bonds) - Is having a lot of trouble up here at the 2008 top at 123.15. The rally since early 2011 is clearly loosing momentum and a break below support at 115.60 will call for a decline to important support at 109.80 and likely lower.

Gold - We have seen a nice rally from neckline support at 1,522, but we should soon meet strong resistance near 1,643, which easily could turn gold down again towards the neckline support.

Longer term I looking for a decline towards support at 1,284 and maybe even towards support at 1,084, but we will take the coming decline step by step.

Crude Oil - has rally further than I expected and mostly due to fears about Iran. Yes this is a case of concern and if we rally much further (above 104.50) we might even see a continuation towards 114 - 115 area again and maybe even 123. A break above 104.50 is not my favorite call at this point, but we must be aware of the risk.

Only a break below 98.36 will ease the upside pressure and call for a new decline towards 92.50 and below.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and AUD/USD

2012-01-03T08:31:00.007+01:00

We will stay in the currency world today.

EUR/USD - Still fighting with the large red Pitchfork mid-line and at the same time staying within the minor red-dotted Pitchfork, which keeps the pressure down towards the the blue channel support line near the 126.45 area.

My favorite scenario is, that we will eventually break below 126.45 for a much deeper decline, but for now lets see, what happens as we close in on support near 126.45.

USD/JPY - Wasn't able to break above the long term falling trend line, which has turned us down towards support in the 76.44 - 76.55 area. This area needs to hold firm or we will be looking at a deeper decline closer to 74.00.
Only a break above the long term falling downtrend line at 78.05 will ease the downside pressure.

GBP/USD - Should soon see downside pressure added for a thrust down towards the 140 area. I do believe my original triangle count is the right one, but there is a possibility, that the triangle still is building, but the final outcome will be the same - A powerful thrust to the downside.

AUD/USD (Yearly) - I forgot to show you the yearly picture of this major cross yesterday. But as can be seen here too we saw a long legged Doji over the last year (open and close of the year almost identical). This is a reversal pattern and we should see pressure build as the new year progresses.

The first target is near 98.00, but we should see a decline towards at least the mid-line of the rising channel near 90.00. A clear break below 90.00 will turn focus towards the channel support line near the low 70 area.

Longer term I'm even more bearish on the Aussie dollar, but lets just leave it there for now.

Technical analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500 and Gold

2012-01-02T07:49:00.005+01:00

On this first trading day of the new year I have decided to take a look at the quarterly chart of EUR/USD and the yearly charts for S&P 500 and Gold.

EUR/USD (Quarterly) - Going back to 1987 we can see, that we are in a big up-trending channel and are currently flirting with the mid-point of this channel. The mid-point is close to 127.00 and should offer support. Some weeks ago I showed the Pitchfork support at 126.45, so we will find strong support in the 126.45 - 127 area, but if this support breaks then we should be looking for a much deeper decline.

S&P 500 (Yearly) - 2011 was a year of indecision. The long-legged Doji candle (open of the year at 1,567.62 and the closing of the year at 1,567.60 was almost identical) is a bearish candle and should add pressure to the downside for 2012 in general. That doesn't mean, that we couldn't see a move closer towards 1,300 in the start of the year, but downside pressure should build in the first and second quarter of 2012.
Going back to 1982 we can see, that we retraced an almost perfect 61.8% at 666.79 of the rally from 119.13 to 1,553.11.
I would look for support in the 1,115 - 1,116 area as the first target, but we would also likely see the 1,000 - 1,011 area tested during the first half of 2012.

Gold (Yearly) - 11 straight years of rising gold prices and from the bottom (251.70 in 1999) to the top (1,920.30 in 2011) a nice Fibonacci 13 years of rise.
Looking further back the 1970 bottom of 34.95 to the 1980 top at 835.00 we closed withing 10 points from the 1.618 times the 1970 - 1980 rise in 2011. I do think it's time for a long rest in gold's uptrend. During 2012 I will be looking for a decline towards the 1,282 area and possibly even to 1,086 during the first three quarters of 2013, before we should look for new highs in gold.
Be aware that a break below 1,086 will call for further declines towards 890 before we can expect a rise to new highs. This is not my favored scenario, but we can't ignore the possibility.

Happy New Year

2011-12-30T22:44:00.004+01:00

Happy New Year to you all and a prosperous 2012

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/TRY

2011-12-30T12:36:00.004+01:00

EUR/TRY - Topping out here? I think so. we have seen an ending diagonal developing since early 2006. The throw-over in August and October also marks the boundaries of a minor double top and a break below 240.60 will confirm the top and a decline to the long term support line, which currently is near 199.25 and rising.
A break below 240.60 will trigger the double top for a decline towards the 222 - 223 area.
The nice thing about this cross is, that the yield on TRY (Turkish Lira) is a little over 8% in the 1 and 3 months periods, which will leave you with a nice premium to the spot rate.

Elliott Wave analysis on GBP/USD

2011-12-30T10:16:00.003+01:00

GBP/USD - Forgot to add this chart of Cable. We are most likely seeing a break down of minor support at 154.30 and should be headed for the next support at 151.50. Longer term we should see a decline to at least the 134 - 137 area, but I would not be surprised to see a continuation down towards the 118 - 119 area.

Elliott Wave and technical analysis on the USD-index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; SP 500; Shanghai Comp.; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-12-30T07:59:00.015+01:00

USD-Index - It is just a matter of time before we break clearly above resistance at 80.40 for the next rally higher towards 82.60 and the inverted S/H/S target at 87.55 longer term.
We might need some more consolidation just below 80.40, but as I said it's just a matter of time before it breaks.

EUR/USD - Have already broken below its support and should be headed down towards its next target in the 125.45 - 126.45 area. Longer term the S/H/S target measures down to 112.25, but remember the strong Pitchfork support near 126.45.

USD/JPY - Wasn't able to break above long term resistance, which most likely will cause a move back to support at 77.15 before the next attempt to break above the long term falling trend line.

Only a clear break above resistance at 78.15 will confirm, that an important bottom is in place at 75.50.

S&P 500 - I'm still looking for a move higher towards 1,292 and maybe even closer to 1,299, but more than that isn't expected. From the 1,292 - 1,299 area we should see a new powerful decline below 1,248.68 and more importantly 1,229.50, which confirms the next decline to 1,202 and lower.

The longer term picture (see below) is still dominated by the major S/H/S top calling for a return to the at least the 2009 lows.

Shanghai Composite - I still see this as an ending diagonal, where we are missing the last leg down towards the 2,110 area, from where a correction higher towards the 2,239 area should be seen.

Short term look for a break below 2,171 to confirm the last leg down.

Gold - Made it down to my target area between 1,528 - 1,535 and we should now see a correction towards the 1,613 and more likely towards the 1,636 - 1,642 area, before the next challenge of support at 1,528 will be seen.

Crude Oil - Is setting it self up for a powerful decline towards 92.80 and lower. At the chart above we can see an interesting fractal in the MACD, which calls for an extended period in the oversold area calling for a powerful decline. The last time we saw this, crude oil dropped more than 5% in one day, so be very careful in these lofty areas. Short term I do look for one last move to just below 101 - Ideally 100.96, which should mark an excellent selling opportunity

The bigger picture (see below) also calls for a decline towards the neckline, which currently is at 77.40 moving up slightly.

Elliott wave and technical analysis on EUR/USD; USD/CAD; EUR/CAD; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; Italian Bond Yields; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-29T07:57:00.013+01:00

EUR/USD - We finally saw the next impulsive move to the downside yesterday. We should now be headed for support in the 125.45 - 126.45 area. We will find very strong support in this area, but if it breaks we should be looking for much lower levels longer term.

USD/CAD - Most likely ended its triangle "X" wave yesterday and we should soon test resistance at 104.25 and more importantly neckline resistance near 106.25. Should 106.25 be broken, look for a rally towards the 117 - 118 area.

My triangle count seems to be the best count for now, but it could as easily be a series of one's and two's, but for now lets stay with the triangle count as the outcome in the short to medium term will be the same - A rally towards the 117 - 118 area.

EUR/CAD - Is clearly breaking down from its six months corrective pattern, which calls for a decline to below 124.75. The broken former support line, now resistance, near 133.20 should hold, but we must accept a small penetration to the 133.60 - 133.90 area before the next serious decline.

S&P 500 - The clear break back below 1,256 has invalidated the inverted S/H/S, so bye bye to the possible 1,360 S/H/S target. That means we still could see 1,292 and 1,299 tested as long as we don't break below 1,242.85 and more importantly 1,229.50. A break below the later confirms that we have seen a top and support at 1,202 is under fire again.

Shanghai Composite - Is in the later part of an ending diagonal. We need one more decline towards 2,110. If my ending diagonal count is correct we can't go below 2,098 as that would invalidate this count.

After the test of 2,110 I would look for a move back towards the 2,330 - 2,340 area. from where the next decline towards 1,800 should begin.

10Y Italian Bond Yield - Even after a successful six month bond auction yesterday the 10Y yield stayed above 7%. A break above 7.3% will open up for a move towards 8.25 - 8.45%.

I do think it's just a question of time before the break above 7.3%

Gold - Is clearly on its way to the support-area between 1,528 - 1,535, which most likely would cause a corrective move back towards 1,636 area, but longer term the downside is now open for a move towards the 1,284 area (see the long term chart below)

Crude Oil - The failure break above the resistance line was confirmed by the break below 100.30 and we should now be looking for a break below 99.15 to confirm the next decline towards 96.09 and lower.

Technical analysis on EUR/CAD; US T-Bond Yield; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-28T14:44:00.009+01:00

An other slow day with very low volume.

EUR/CAD - Seems to be breaking down from its six months corrective pattern, which ultimately calls for a decline to below 124.75. The former support line at 133.17 is now becoming resistance. That doesn't mean we can't penetrate it slightly but not beyond 135.50 as that would leave us with a failure break.

US T-bond Yield - Has broken below support and is currently back testing the former support line, which has now turned into resistance. The downside should now be open to a decline towards the Double Top neckline (pink) near 135.50.

Gold - Should be headed towards support near 1,528, where strong support will be found. Looking at the bigger picture (see this link:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/12/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_15.html) a much deeper decline could well be in the doing.

Crude Oil - Here we most likely have a failure break above the resistance line, whats needed now is a break below support in the 100.30 - 100.40 area, which would call for a quick decline to support at 96.09 and a break here confirms the next powerful decline towards 89 and below 75 longer term.

Technical analysis on EUR/USD; EUR/CAD; S&P 500; VIX-Index and the 10Y Italian Govt. Bond Yield

2011-12-27T08:47:00.009+01:00

In a thin after the holiday market I have decided to look at some different charts.

EUR/USD - Still in a holding pattern, but I also still look for a breakdown below 130.17 to confirm the next decline towards the 125 - 126 area.

Short term resistance is at 131.

EUR/CAD - Might be breaking down from a six months corrective pattern. If we break clearly below 133 we should see a move to below 124.75.

Short term resistance is in the 133.75 - 134.25 area.

S&P 500 has broken above resistance at 1,256 calling for a move towards 1,292 and likely also near 1,300, but the stock market participants is clearly getting to complacent and we should be aware of a sudden collapse in prices.

As I wrote on December 25. a inverted S/H/S pattern can be seen and it does have a target near 1,360, which we might have to fulfill. After the break above 1,256 I would be cautious bullish, but I would not run after anything is this lofty area.

VIX - Index - As I just said. The markets is becoming too complacent, but we are clearly looking at some kine of ending diagonal, which probably has a little more downside, but when its done we should see a quick move to the upside.

The 10Y Italian Government Bond Yield - We are closing in on the important resistance at 7.30 and a break above here would call for a continuation towards the 8.25 - 8.35 area.

This situation is not sustainable in the long run. If a solution is not found pretty quickly the hole Euro system could collapse. I'm sure that EU and the Italian politician will do what ever to kick the can further down the road, but in the long run status quo can't be maintained with yield this high.

Santa Claus came this year too

2011-12-24T11:00:00.004+01:00

HO HO HO... We clearly broke above the 1,256 resistance and the next target to look for is at 1,292. But look closely at the chart and you will notice, that an inverted S/H/S bottom was triggered with the break above 1,256 and a target near 1,356. Along the way to the S/H/S target strong resistance will be found at 1,292 and in the 1,299 - 1,300 area. So be aware if one of these resistance points turns prices clearly back below the neckline.

Have a Merry Xmas.

Technical analysis on the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; T-Bonds; Gold; Copper and Crude Oil

2011-12-23T08:34:00.018+01:00

Today's post will be very long. Hope you will enjoy it.

USD-Index - We saw a nice back test of the neckline support and the rejection at that support suggest, that we soon should see minor resistance at 80.14 break for a move towards important resistance at 80.73 and a break here confirms the next serious rally towards 82.60

EUR/USD - Here too we saw a nice back test to the neckline resistance at 132.05. I'm now looking for a break below 130.20 to confirm the next decline towards 125.75.

For the short term we might need more time trading more or less sideways, but it should only be a question of time before we see support at 130.20 lost.

USD/JPY - Can feel the long term trendline resistance on its back as it tries to push above. Will it succeed? If we can break clearly above 78.30 then we can say, that an important bottom was found at 75.50 and a break above the neckline resistance at 79.15 should confirm a rally back to the wave 4 triangle apex at 115 longer term.

S&P 500 - We are facing resistance here at 1,256. I don't think it will be any easy task to break above here. We are packed with resistance in this area and a break below 1,247 and more importantly 1,229.50 will turn the tide and call for a move towards support in the 1,200 - 1,202
area.

Shanghai Composite - The red Pitchfork mid-line is doing its best to prevent a collapse in prices, but if we are in wave 3 down as I expects, then the mid-line will give in to the pressure at some point and a collapse towards 1,662 should be seen.

T-Bonds - I just thought that the pattern is very interesting here. We might be building a major double top with a neckline at near 135.50. However we also have good support at 142.25 and a break below here will confirm a decline to the neckline.

Gold - With only five trading days back the break below the support line from 2009 might be closer than many Gold-bugs like. If this trendline is broken then we should turn focus towards the downside for a quick test of support at 1,528, but I believe we will a move towards the 1,283 area too.

Copper - Is back testing the minor support line (now resistance), that was broken last week. We should soon see a more firm test of the neckline support near the 305 area and a break here will spell real trouble for the Global economy.

Crude oil - Is testing strong resistance here in the high 99 area. We should be close to a new break-down in prices. A break below 99.15 and more importantly 98.50 confirms that a top is in place for the next serious decline. Until we loose 99.15 we could see a move to 100 and maybe just slightly above, but don't bet on it...

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-12-22T08:02:00.009+01:00

EUR/USD - After a almost perfect back test of the neckline resistance, we are now ready to continue down to next support at 129.56 and then very strong support just below 126.
Short term i would expect resistance at 130.90, but we must accept a move towards 131.30 before a break below 130.10 confirms the next serious decline

USD/JPY - We are closing in on long term resistance in form of the long term falling trend line at 78.15 and we need a break above here to confirm, that an important bottom is in place at 75.50 and a rally towards the triangle apex at 115 has begun.
This is not the most pretty picture I have ever seen, but I still favor a break above 78.15 for a move towards the low 79 area, where we will find neckline resistance.

AUD/USD - Clearly took advantage of the risk on rally we saw Tuesday, but we saw a large bearish wick yesterday, which calls for a break below 100.50 to confirm the next decline towards 98.85.

Short term I looking for a test of minor resistance at 101.15 and maybe even 101.60, before the decline through 100.50 confirms the next move down.

S&P 500 - Is doing its best not to loose sight of the pink Pitchfork resistance line near 1,243. Even if we does see a move to 1,256 resistance will be hard to break short term. Only a clear break above 1,256 will confirm the Santa rally to just below 1,300, but as everybody is now looking for that move will we see it? I doubt it, but lets see what happens as we get closer to resistance at 1,256.

A break below 1,202 will invalidate any further upside progress.

Gold - Spiked a little over my resistance at 1,634, but as can be seen it was clearly a failure break and the following break below 1,605 tells us, that we are headed towards important support at 1,528.

Short term we could see a move towards the 1,623 -1,627 area before the next serious pressure to the downside sets in.

Crude Oil - Did a little more upside progress than expected, but I don't really see much more power in this rally, maybe one last move higher towards the 99.50-99.75 area. I would be looking for selling opportunities around this area or a break below 96.70 as the safer bet, for the next decline towards 92.54 and 89.20.

Elliott Wave analysis on USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold; Copper and Crude Oil

2011-12-21T07:58:00.010+01:00

USD-Index - Is back testing is neckline support. I expect this support to hold. We should allow for a minor penetration, but in general it should hold for the next rally towards 80.50 for a move higher towards 82.50.
Short term we should allow for a minor penetration of the neckline to the 78.80 - 79 area.

EUR/USD - Here I would look for a move back towards 132.05 back testing its neckline resistance, but the is no change in my overall view, which is down and a break below 130.60 will confirm the next serious decline has begun.

USD/JPY - Is holding just below trend line resistance near 78. We still need a clear break above this trend line resistance to confirm, that we saw an important bottom at 75.50.

A clear break above the trend line resistance will open for a move towards neckline resistance near 79, but at the same time confirms a rally back towards the triangle apex at 115 longer term.

S&P 500 - Did indeed hold support at 1,200 (low was 1,202.37). Even though we broke above 1,231 to confirm a Santa Rally we will face resistance here at 1,242 again at 1,258 and only a break here confirms a move higher to just below 1,300.

Gold - Also enjoyed the risk on rally we saw yesterday, but we are not done with the downside just yet. We still need a decline towards the 1,535 area. We should find good resistance in the 1,628 - 1,634 area. Any break below 1,605 will confirm the minor correction finished and call for the next decline towards 1,535.

Copper - Is back testing the broken minor support line (now resistance). I still looking for a more serious test of the neckline support at in the 305 area. We might not break below in the first attempt, will most likely will at some later point.

Crude Oil - The correction from 92.54 broke above 97.36, which has altered the short term count slightly. The break above 97.36 tells us, that wave iii down has not yet begun, but that we are in a series of wave one's and two's.

We are facing strong overhead resistance near 98.70, which I do expect will protect the upside for a break below 96.65 and more importantly 94.15, that will confirm the next serious decline has begun.

Technical analysis on the CRB-Index; Copper; S&P 500; FTSE 100; Bovespa and Sensex

2011-12-20T08:09:00.009+01:00

Xmas seems to calm the markets down, so I sought we could look at some other stuff today.

CRB-Index - Is sitting right at important support at 293. As can be seen above, this support/resistance has been significant for a number of years. I do think we eventually will see a break below support at 293 calling for a decline to at least 264, but more likely 248 as the next important supports. A break below 293 will spell more trouble for the com-currencies; AUD; BRL; CAD; NZD and ZAR.

Copper - Is Dr. Copper telling us something? We might be building a big S/H/S top where the Head itself was a smaller S/H/S top. We have broken below a minor support, which calls for a more significant test of the neckline near 305 and a break here will have long term bearish consequences for the financial markets and the Global economy in general.

S&P 500 - I thought we might have a quick look at the S&P 500 too. We are closing in on short term important support near 1,200. This support needs to hold firm to stages a break above 1,231 to maintain the possibility of a Santa-Rally.

A break below 1,200 will also break the Bulls and call for a decline towards 1,158 as next short term support.

FTSE 100 - Here too a big S/H/S after a smaller S/H/S top forming the hear. Here important support is the neckline at 4,789 and a break below here will spell trouble for the UK. It is just a matter of time before we see the break below the neckline calling for a retest of the 2009 bottom.

Bovespa - The Brazilian index is also headed back towards the 2008 low. A break below 52,150 and more importantly 46,148 confirms the decline. Short term we have just broken below a minor support calling for a decline towards support at 52,150.

Sensex - The Indian stock index has just broken below important support at 15,000 calling for a continuation towards next support at 14,384, but a more likely target will be 12,799, where stronger support will be found. Longer term I do look for a decline back to the 2008 low here too.

Elliott Wave analysis on USD-Index; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-19T10:27:00.010+01:00

USD-Index - Has tested the 50% retracement target of the decline from 88.34 to 72.84. We might be looking at some consolidation before the next rally higher towards 82.60 sets in.
In the bigger picture the Inverted S/H/S bottom has been triggered and has a target in the 87 range.

USD/JPY - Is approaching the long term downtrend line from 124.16 in mid-2007. We need to break above this resistance to confirm, that 75.50 is an important bottom and in the longer term a return to the wave 4 triangle apex at 115.
The downtrend line is currently at 78.35 and the neckline resistance (pink) is at 79.15.

GBP/USD - Is trading just around is minor support, but it should be a question of time before we see a clear break to the downside and a test of the next important support near 151.35. Longer term the trust down from the [B]-wave triangle calls for a decline towards the 112 area.

S&P 500 - We still have no clear resolution here. Is wave 2 done at 1,292.66 and have we begun the next serious decline towards 1,085? Or are we missing one more leg to the upside calling for a rally to just under 1,300?

As can be seen above the first decline from 1,292.66 stopped right at the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1,074.77 to 1,292.66, but the following rally was not convincing and has left us with two almost equal possibilities. I slightly favor the downside and a break below 1,192 and more importantly 1,158, but everybody is looking and pushing for the Santa-rally so just maybe we will have, but don't bet on it...

Gold - Is still headed for a test of support in the 1,528 - 1,534.49 range and if this support breaks too, we should be looking for the next support near 1,431 and possibly even 1,284.

Remember we have broken be the 4-year support line, which is a sign of weakness, but the break has to be confirmed by a break below the 1,528 - 1,535 area too, otherwise we could see one more rally to just above 2,000.

Crude oil - Is working is way down, after wave ii ended at 102.44. We have just meet support at the red Pitchforks mid-line and at the same time hit the 38.2% retracement target of the rally from 75 to 103.37, but we are now in wave iii down and corrections tend to be small and shallow at this point, we should be looking for a test of support at 89.19 and 85.83 soon.

The Global economy is slowly but surely headed for recession and demand for oil will be less. Remember 2008?

Europe's faith is given austerities and every thing. China could easily be headed for a hard landing (my preferred view) and the US economy is fighting to keep its pace above zero, but I'm sure it will fail too within the first half of 2012.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD

2011-12-16T09:19:00.003+01:00

I have been working with the longer term picture in EUR/USD lately. The weekly chart above is packed with information, where we might find support.
The longer term count I see most fit, is the one showed above. If this count is correct we should now be in wave [C] down. Wave [C] will be equal in length to wave [A] at 112.25, which is very close to the Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target (see the light green lines). The first thing to notice is, that we currently is testing the mid-line of the big red Pitchfork near 129.66. This support may cause some consolidation, but when it breaks we should see a quick decline towards the next very strong support near 126.45.
At this point we could see a reaction back to 133.00, but I don't really expect any move beyond the 131.90 - 132.46 before the next serious test of 129.66.

Above I stated that 126.45 would be a very strong support, the reason can be found in the chart below. Here we can see a very large Pitchfork dominating the picture since the major bottom in 1985. Notice how it nailed the 2008 top at 160.38, but the important thing to look for is the Support line, which currently comes in at around 125.54. I will keep working with my 112.25 - 112.50 target, but at the same time keep an eye on the price action as we approach support in the 125.54 - 126.45 area.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; Shanghai Comp.; S&P 500; Gold; Silver; Copper and Crude Oil

2011-12-15T08:38:00.016+01:00

Another long one today.

EUR/USD - Is closing in on support at 128.71, which easily could lead to some kind of correction or consolidation. Longer term I look for much lower levels and when 128.71 breaks we should be looking for a continuation towards next support in the high 125 area.

USD/JPY - The picture is pretty much the same. Long term resistance is just above in the 78.50 - 78.75 area, but a break above here will confirm, that an important bottom is in place at 75.50 and longer term a rally back to the triangle apex at 115 would be seen.

GBP/USD - The breakdown has begun. We should soon seen support at 152.70 tested and probably also support near 151.30. Here too we must expect some kind of reaction or consolidation. Longer term I'm still looking for much lower levels (118 is the triangle target).

USD/CAD - Has actually done surprising well lately, but we should soon see a challenge of resistance first near 104.85 and then more importantly near 106.30 (neckline resistance). From And Elliott Wave perspective the most likely count is, that we are in some kine of "X" wave, which seems to take shape of a triangle. If this is the case we should see resistance at 104.85 turn us down in wave "E" towards 102.69 and maybe even closer to 102, before we really take on the neckline resistance near 106.30.

Shanghai Composite - Is now close to the red Pitchfork mid-line. I don't see any reason why it should just be broken, as we are in the powerful wave 3 of 5 down, but it may however be able to cause a short term consolidation just above, before it breaks and the lower support-line become the magnet.

S&P 500 - We are still not out of the woods. We could see one more go to the upside, but there isn't much more room to the downside. A break below 1,198 will make it very difficult too hang on to any bullish short term counts. Any break below 1,158.67 will invalidate all short term bullish counts and call for a decline towards neckline support near 1,085.

Gold - BREAK DOWN! Okay cool it. the chart above is a monthly chart and we are only half-way into it, but this is the first break below this support-line in almost four years, that's important no matter which time-frame we are looking at. It immediately calls for a test of support in the 1,528 - 1,534 area, but it will make it much harder to regain the extreme optimism we have seen lately.

I do think that we are headed lower towards at least the 38.2% retracement of the entire rise from 1999 to the top in 2011, which is near 1,240. There will of cause be some heavy supports along the way down. Support in the 1,430 - 1,460 area will be one of them.

Silver - I had a request regarding Silver yesterday and my opinion. So here we go. My best count is (not shown on the chart), that we have seen an "X" wave from 26 to 35.66 and we should now see the next A-B-C down to first support at 26 and then 24. As the first Zig-zag was very powerful I would expect some not that powerful and much more messy (remember the rule of Alternation). In my view gold is much more interesting at this point.

Copper - Along side the other metals took quite a beating yesterday. We broke below minor support at 337.60, which calls for a more serious test of neckline support near 305 and a break below here will set us up for a decline towards the 160 area. Actually the S/H/S top give us a target near 130, but we will find strong support at 160 first.

Crude Oil - Fell more than 5 pct. I consider that a crash (any objections?) Whats more we took out 95. Only slightly and we are currently trading just above 95, but you don't want to be long in Crude oil after this. It should only be a question of time before we see next serious decline towards 92.54 and then more importantly 89.20.

Longer term we should see a break below 75 and actually we should see Crude oil much lower, but lets eat the Elephant in smaller bits.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD-Index; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; USD/CHF; Shanghai Comp.; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-12-14T11:24:00.016+01:00

It will be a long update today:

USD-Index - Has clearly broken above the neckline support, which indicates a rally to the 87 area (S/H/S target). The neckline should now act as support. we might penetrate it slightly, but should remain above 78.80.

EUR/USD - The picture is the same as for the USD-Index just inverted. We have clearly broken below neckline support and should see a decline towards the 112 area (S/H/S target). The neckline should now act as resistance. Again we must allow a slight penetration, but overall resistance at 132.40 should not be broken.

USD/JPY - Focus is still on long term resistance in the 78.50 - 78.75 area. A clear break above here will confirm, that a firm bottom is in place at 75.50 for a rally towards the wave 4 triangle apex at 115.

GBP/USD - Seem ready to break below support at 154.20 for a firm test of important support at 152.70 and a break below here confirms, that the next powerful downswing is underway. Long term we should be headed for the 118 area (triangle target)

USD/CHF - Here too an important long term bottom was most likely found at 70.85 for a rally back towards strong support near 101 and a break above here will call for a much higher rally towards the 115 - 116 area.

Shanghai Composite - Is accelerating its decline towards next support near 1,665. On the way down 2,100 will mark a good support area too.

S&P 500 - The decline is still not clear enough to say, that wave 2 from 1,075 is over, but I still prefer that scenario and continue to look for supports to be broken. The next support to be broken is in the 1,198 - 1,200 area. If this area is broken too the next short term support will be at 1,158.

Gold - Still trading above the blue support-line, but just barely. A break below that support-line will call for a much deeper decline in the coming months towards the 1,456 area and probably lower.

Crude Oil - Crash time? We could be very close to a very powerful decline in Crude oil. A break below 97.35 and more importantly 95 is still the best indicator for this decline towards 75 and even deeper longer term.

The two charts below is a daily chart of Crude oil, pretty much the same as above and the lower chart is an hourly chart showing that the red pitchfork keeps turning down prices.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD-Index; USD/JPY; Shanghai Comp.; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-13T09:01:00.010+01:00

USD-Index - Is trading right at the neckline resistance, but a clear break above here will open up the upside side for a continuation towards the 87 area (S/H/S target). As the USD-Index is made up of 59% EUR I do favor a break above the neckline soon.

EUR/USD - Here we have already broken below the neckline support, which if sustained will open up for a continuation down towards the 112 area (S/H/S target). Good support will of cause be found on the way down.

Short term the will be support at 131.44 and again at 128.71.

USD/JPY - Should be ready to challenge resistance in the 78 area soon, but we need a break to confirm, that the test of 75.50 marked a long term bottom and a continuation higher towards the triangle apex at 115.

Shanghai Composite - After the break below important support at 2,305 yesterday, we saw a gap down today, which call a continuation towards the Pitchforks mid-line near 2,150.

Longer term I'm looking for a much deeper decline towards the 1,800 and the 1,500 area at least.

S&P 500 - It's still a little to early to tell whether wave ii from is 1,158.67 is over or even if the wave 2 of one larger degree is over, but the possibility is clearly there. Only a short term break above 1,258.24 will tell us that we need one more push to the upside.

At this point I would not be long at all. I would rather be short or wait to short if minor support at 1,180 breaks.

Gold - Could an important top be in place at 1,920? YES! To back this statement I have been looking into the possibilities and the above chart is one of the best cases we can make. If we take a closer look we can see that wave 3 was a little larger that 2,618 time wave 1, but the possible wave 5 is almost exactly 1,618 times larger than wave 1 through 3 at 1,920. That said we need a break below support near 1,600 and more importantly 1,534, which would confirm a much deeper decline.

As long as support at 1,600 stays firm we must accept the possibility of one last rally higher towards 2,036. I simply can't see the 3,000 or even more obscure 5,000, as many keeps mention as their target, as something to look for at this time.

Crude Oil - Short term I looking for a break below 97.50 to confirm the next serious test of support at 95 and a break below here confirms the next decline towards 89.90 and to strong support at 75.

Longer term I'm looking for a break below 75 to confirm a more serious decline.

Elliott Wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Shanghai Comp.; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-12T08:50:00.010+01:00

EUR/USD - The price action on Friday was a bit weird, but in the bigger picture I'm still looking for a break below important support at 132.05 to confirm the next serious decline towards 128.75 and possibly even much deeper.

USD/JPY - Looking at the bigger picture we are still locked in the long term ending diagonal, but in my favorite scenario, I still prefer that we saw an important bottom at 75.50. However we need a break above the resistance line near 78.60 to confirm this scenario and a call for a return to the wave 4 triangle apex at 115.

S&P 500 - We are in a big correction since the 2007 top, where we have seen wave [A] bottom in March 2009 wave [B] topped in late April 2011 and we are in the early stages of wave [C] down. Prechter has it as wave 3 of [C] down, where the top in 2007 was the end of wave [B]. I do think this is a too bearish a call, but my wave [C] and Prechter's wave 3 could have similar personalities - A swift and powerful decline.

Shanghai Composite - Today broke below its support at 2,305.00, that means we could have started the next serious decline towards the bottom of wave [A] at 1,667 and longer term we should see a continuation towards at least the 1,500 area.

Be aware that the Shanghai Composite has been leading the S&P 500 both down and up.

Gold - The big question is still whether we have see an important top at 1,920 or we will see one more rally to above 2,000 to end the major rise from 1999.

We clearly need a break below the support line near 1,600 to confirm that an important top has been seen. However we are closing on decision-time as we are almost at the end of the two converging lines.

Crude oil - Is very much in sync with the other charts above. If my count is correct we are in the early stages of wave 3 of [C] down. This wave [C] has a target below the bottom of wave [A] at 32.70. However we have some important short term hurdles need to break below. The first is at 95 follower by a more important one near 75, but if they break we are clearly under way down.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; GBP/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-09T08:26:00.013+01:00

EUR/USD - We are once again headed towards strong support at 132.05. If this support breaks, which I eventually expect it will, the downside towards 128.75 and 125.85 springs wide open.
Looking at the short term picture the price action from 135.49 was quite messy, but that might be to the fact, that we have seen a series of waves one's and two's. If this is correct we are now in the powerful wave three down, which could send us right through support at 132.05 for a move towards 130.60.

USD/JPY - Went a little deeper than the expected 77.50 (the low was 77.13), which change the short term count slightly, but did nothing altering to the bigger picture. We should soon see a break above 77.90, which will confirm a firm test of the long term downtrend line near 78.50 and a break above here will confirm that a firm long term bottom is in place with the test of 75.50.

AUD/USD - In my post I yesterday wrote "One thing that should be observed is, if we only sees a minor quick break above 103.40 and then a return back below 102.30, which would call for a failure break to the upside and will indicate a firm move to the downside" We did get exactly that. A quick break above 103.40 followed by a return back below 102.30 and this fact has set the stage for a very powerful move to the downside. We have broken below support at 101.50 and should now see a decline towards 99.15 and likely also strong resistance at 96.63.

Longer term I'm looking for a much deeper decline, but let's look at that scenario a later day.

GBP/USD - Just a short update on Cable (GBP/USD). We have broken minor support at 156.10, which call for a firm test of the triangle support at 152.70 and a break below here will open up for a powerful downside thrust towards the high 118 area.

S&P 500 - As I wrote yesterday the move down to 1,249 could be it, but the rally to 1,267 could as easily be it too. That means a top being in place for the next move to the downside. However it's to early to call of the chance for one more rally towards the 1,290 - 1,299 area, before the next powerful decline really sets in. That said, and as I said yesterday, this is not a time to be buying aggressively, but a time to look for an exit-strategy on longs and enter shorts. Longer term I'm looking for a decline towards the 1,089 area, where we find neckline support.

Gold - We saw a bearish long wicked bar yesterday, which tells us, that support near 1,693 will be under fire soon and a break below here will open for the test of strong support near 1,607. The big question is whether this support will hold or break? If it's holds firm the uptrend is firmly alive and we should see a new high in Gold during early 2012, but if it break we will be looking at a much deeper decline towards 1,453 area and possibly even the 1,312 area.

Crude oil - The break below 98.70 confirmed, that we saw the top of minor wave ii at 102.40 and we should now be headed for support at 95, but this support should not be able to hold for long and the next important support is in the 89 - 90 area.

Longer term I still looking for a clear break below 75, which will call for a decline towards 63 and possibly even below the 2009 low at 32.79.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; AUD/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-12-08T07:52:00.008+01:00

EUR/USD - The minor support line near 133.60 is putting up quite a fight and as long as it's holding firm we can't exclude a break above 134.54, which would call for a move towards the 136 area before down.
However a break below the support line at 133.60 will invalidate further risk to the upside an call for a decline towards important support at 132.05.

USD/JPY - Is locked in an ending diagonal and we will probably see it move closer to the support line near 77.50, before the next rally higher towards long term resistance at 78.65. If resistance at 78.65 is broken too it will confirm, that the test of 75.50 was a firm bottom.

AUD/USD - Top or sideways consolidation? I prefer the top-building scenario, but we need a break below 102.30 and more importantly 101.50 to confirm this call. If however 101.50 is broken we can expect a decline towards 99.17 and likely strong support at 96.70.

That said the possibility of a break above 103.40 would call for a move closer to 107 again before down. One thing that should be observed is, if we only sees a minor quick break above 103.40 and then a return back below 102.30, which would call for a failure break to the upside and will indicate a firm move to the downside.

S&P 500 - Was the decline to 1,249 it? It could well be and if it's the case we should be looking for a continuation higher towards the 1,290 - 1,300 area, but we are clearly in the final part of the rally from 1,160 so this is not the time to overly aggressive, but more a time to fine-tune the short term exit-strategy.

Longer term I'm looking for a firm test of strong neckline resistance near 1,080

Gold - Decision time is within this or next week. I'm still looking for a break below support at 1,693 as the most likely scenario. A break below support at 1,693 will call for a firm test of important support-line near 1,607, which will decide the faith of the direction in the medium term.

Crude oil - I still think we saw the end of minor wave ii at 102.44 and a break below 98.70 and more importantly 95.00 will confirm the next powerful decline in wave iii down towards support at 75.00.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-07T09:39:00.007+01:00

I have got a new version of my "old" charting system and the new charts looks awful when copied, so I will update with the charts from FreeStockCharts.com.

EUR/USD - We should be close to the maximum upside potential. I'm looking for a break below 133.50 and more importantly 133.33, which will confirm the next decline towards 132.20.

If we continue to climb much higher (above 134.82), that will leave us with an "x" wave to 133.30 calling for a move higher towards 136.10.

USD/JPY - We should be very close to a bottom. We could see a move towards 77.30, before the next leg higher through 77.89 to confirm the test of the long term falling downtrend line at 78.70 and a break above here confirms the long term bottom at 75.50.

S&P 500 - The above count could easily be the right on. It would call for a minor set-back in wave b and setting the stage for one more rally in wave c towards the 1,291 - 1,300 area, before the next serious attempt to the downside.

Longer term I still looking for a firmer test of the strong neckline support near 1,080 and a break below (I expect a break) here will point towards the 2009 bottom.

Gold - Nothing new to add. We are locked into some kind of triangle shaped formation, which I expect will be broken to the downside for a more firm test of strong support at 1,580.

Crude oil - Is holding up well, but it should be a matter of time before support near 98 breaks and calls for a continuation lower towards 95 and the 86 area. Longer term we should still be headed much lower.

Resistance is at 102.25.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; Shanghai Composite; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-12-06T11:36:00.012+01:00

My charting problem is still not fixed.

EUR/USD - has tested support at 133.35, but wasn't able to break below, so we need a little consolidation time before the next attempt will be seen. Any break below 133.35 will re-open for a new test at strong support at 132.05.

Short term I expect 134.00 to put a decent fight, but we must accept a move towards 134.35, before down.

USD/JPY - Still not much to add here. I'm looking for support at 77.29 to protect the downside for the next serious test of the long term trendline resistance at 78.70 and a break here confirms, that the test of 75.50 marked an important bottom.

Shanghai Composite - Is again close to important support at 2,310, if this support breaks we will be looking at 1,665 as the next long term target.

For now look for resistance near 2,380 holding for the more serious test of important support at 2,310.

S&P 500 - Found resistance at 1,267 and I'm now looking for a break below 1,247 to call for a decline to at least the 1,200 - 1,210 area. If this support area can't protect the downside we will see a new challenge of support at 1,159 and the neckline support near 1,085.

Gold - Is locked in a triangle shaped formation, which I expected will break to the downside for a more serious test of support at 1,689 and most likely 1,588 too.

Crude Oil - Has meet resistance at 102.44 and should now be headed for support near 97.05 and a break here will open for a continuation towards important support at 95. Longer term I still expect support at 95 to break too for a move towards the 86 area.

EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-05T17:08:00.008+01:00

Sorry for the very late update, but have had serious trouble with my normal charting system. Therefor the charts will be a little different today.

EUR/USD - Not much to add here. We might see a move towards 135.00, before the next decline sets in. Actually we could already have seen whatever reaction from 133.63, that was needed, but just in case accept a slightly higher reaction before a break below 134.22 indicates, that the next downside pressure has begun. Longer term I'm still looking for a break below 132.10.

USD/JPY - Not much to add here either. I'm still looking for a short term break above 78.15 to confirm the next challenge of the long term downtrend line at 78.70 a break above this downtrend line will confirm, that an important bottom is in place with the test of 75.50.

S&P 500 - Could we see a move closer to 1,300? Yes, but we still should be relatively close to strong resistance, which should turn us down again for a break below 1,243 and more importantly 1,233.20, which is the clue that a top is in place and the next decline towards 1,159 has begun.

Gold - Is holding up well too, but I still look for strong overhead resistance at 1,768 for a break below 1,722 to confirm the next test of support at 1,690.

Crude oil - is trying to regain the 103 level, but I don't expect it to be a success. I'm still looking for a break below 97.23 to confirm a new decline to 95 and most likely the 86 area too.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-12-02T15:04:00.007+01:00

EUR/USD - Support at 134.15 protected the downside perfectly, which keeps the possibility of a continuation higher towards 136.06 alive. If resistance at 136.06 is tested it should pose a good selling opportunity for the next pressure to the downside for a test of support at 133.20 and more importantly 132.10.
A break above 136.06 will call for a move back towards the 138 area, but I serious doubt this scenario.

USD/JPY - Decision time coming soon. I still look for a move higher towards the long term resistance line near 78.95, but a clear break above here will open up the upside for a much bigger rally towards 115.

However as long at resistance at 78.95 is not broken, we must accept that the long term trend is down.

S&P 500 - We are at important support, which should protect further pressure to the upside for a break below 1,232.88, which will confirm, that some kind of top is in place, but we still need a break below 1,196.86 to really add to the downside pressure.

Also notice the "Hidden Divergence", which normally warns for a powerful move coming (here to the downside..)

Gold - Is a resistance, which I expects will force the next move lower towards 1,643 and maybe even a test of the very strong support in the 1,574 area.

It will take a clear break above 1,765 to relieve the downside pressure.

Crude Oil - Not much to add here. Still trying to gain upside, but time is running out and a break below 99 will call for a decline towards 95 and possible also 86 on the way below 75 again.

Could we make one more new high closer to 102? Yes, but that should be it...

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude oil

2011-12-01T08:39:00.007+01:00

EUR/USD - Yesterday we saw a coordinated action from the major central banks, which flipped everything around, at least for the short term. Yes the rallies extended, but where the extraordinary? No way! I actually find them pitiful.
However we saw EUR/USD break back above 134.42, which has opened for a continuation towards 135.31. If support at 134.15 caps the downside we should a continuation towards 136.06, from where I would look for renewed pressure to the downside. A clear break below 134.15 would most likely indicate, that a top is already in place at 135.31.

USD/JPY - As we took out support at 77.58 I think the count shown is a better short term fit.
That means we could see one more pressure close to 77.28 or just below before the next rally towards important resistance at 78.95 and 79.51.

S&P 500 - The zig-zag red wave II count was clearly the right one. We are now entering a resistance-zone in the area from 1,248 - 1,253, which I expect will block for further progress to the upside. A break below 1,233.58 will be the first clue, that a top is in place, while we do need a break below 1,196.86 to confirm the top.

What if we just blow through resistance at 1,253? A break above 1,253 will call for a continuation higher towards 1,264 and possibly 1,276.

Gold - Also benefited from the Central Banks action, but is facing strong resistance at 1,760, which should mark wave iv of and ending expanded diagonal calling for one more decline towards strong resistance at 1,642 and even stronger at 1,577.

Crude Oil - Also made a go for it, but resistance in the 101.65 - 102 zone seems to have done its job. We have clear short term divergence between the price-action and the MACD-Indicator, which should prevent further advance and call for a break below support at 100.00 soon. A break below this support will call for a new test of the 95 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-30T08:50:00.010+01:00

The major Central Banks comes to the rescue and flips everything upside down for now. However it could easily turn out to be a dangerous game they are playing. We have seen this game played before and it only works for so long, but of cause this time it might be different even though I seriously doubt it...

Original post below:
EUR/USD - We obviously needed a care-run to 134.42 to force out all the bears, that was looking for a possible minor inverted S/H/S bottom. The following price-action clearly tells us, that the trend is firmly down for a break below 132.10 soon, with next support at 131.40.

USD/JPY - Here too the decline got a little deeper than expected, but the top of red wave i at 77.58 was not penetrated, which leave us with two possible counts. One is, that we saw the top of red wave iii at 78.23 and red wave iv at 77.59 and we should now be looking at red wave v towards 78.95. The more bullish count is that the rally from 76.99 to 78.23 only was wave i of red wave iii calling for a much more powerful rally soon, which should break clearly trough 78.95.

S&P 500 - tried to break above resistance at 1,198 without success. We might see one last failure towards 1,205, but I will not be betting on it and I'm now looking for a break below 1,184.50 to confirm, that the next downside pressure has begun in red wave III down towards important support at 1,068.

Gold - Here too we needed a slightly new high as the bulls got excited, but there is nothing to be excited about just yet. I'm still looking for a more serious test of important support near 1,570. If this support holds bulls should get excited.

Crude Oil - Here too we saw a higher retracement, than expected, but it hasn't change the bigger picture calling for a break below 97 soon confirming a new test of support at 95 and a break here clearly confirms that we saw an important short term top (possibly also long term top) at 103.34. A break below 95 will call for a quick decline towards the 86 area.

Shanghai Composite - Testing important support

2011-11-30T08:22:00.005+01:00

First take a look at my post from September 28 here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/09/chinese-economy-in-trouble.html

The charts above show the monthly and weekly price-action of the Shanghai Composite.

On the upper chart we have now closed below the 20 year rising trend-line support four month in a row, all but confirming the change in the long term trend.

Looking at the weekly chart below we can see important support at 2,307 being challenged. If... No when this support breaks the next target will be the bottom of wave [A] at 1,668, but the longer term target for wave [C] is at 1,080.

USD/CNY is still in a clear downtrend, but we have multiple warnings, that we could soon see the downtrend-line at 645.80 tested. If resistance at 645.80 is broken we should be headed higher towards 689 (there is no Elliott wave count on this chart, but the 689 mark is the top of wave 4 of the decline from 869 in 1994), 689.00 also marks the 23.6% retracement target for the entire decline from 869.00 to 637.84.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; S&P 500; Gold; Copper and Crude Oil

2011-11-29T08:27:00.012+01:00

EUR/USD - Made it to resistance at 134.00, The rejection here and the following decline to me confirms the bearish picture. I'm now looking for a break below 132.70 to confirm the next serious test of the support at 132.10.
Longer term I'm still looking for a much deeper decline through 131.40 for a move towards 128.63.

USD/JPY - The rally towards the red down-trendline resistance near 78.95 still looks very healthy. Longer term I look for a break above this trendline, which would confirm, that an important bottom is in place with the test of 75.55 and a rally back to 115.00 has begun.

GBP/USD - I have added GBP/USD (Cable) today as we are closing in on very important support near 153.45 and a break below here will trigger a thrust out of the big triangle, which has been building since January 2009.

The target for this thrust down will be near the 119 - 120 area.

S&P 500 - We have now tested resistance near 1,198.50. The big question is whether this was wave c of an expanded flat or this only was wave a and we have one more rally to go, when wave b comes to an end. I prefer the expanded flat count, which calls for renewed pressure to the downside from here. However a break above 1,198.50 will add more credence to the simple zig-zag count an call for a move higher towards the 1,215 area.

Gold - Seems to have ended its minor wave iv and is ready to challenge support near the 1,635 - 1,640 area. If this support breaks we can expect a much bigger decline.

Short term a break below 1,699 should be the first minor trigger for a move lower towards support.

Copper - I have added Copper too today. as the long term picture soon could turn very ugly. As can be seen on the chart above. we have been in a long term uptrend since 2001, which ended with the failure break above the upper channel resistance-line at 410 in late 2010.

My preferred count is that we have seen a major [A] - [B] - [C] correction, where wave [A] and [C] was equal in length and wave [B] an expanded flat. We can also see a possible S/H/S top building and a break below the neckline at 318 will trigger a big decline towards the 171 area.

If this scenario plays out Dr. Copper also spells big trouble for the economy ahead.

Crude Oil - The picture above for Copper also go hand in hand with my longer term view for Crude Oil, which is also clearly down.

Short term I think we saw wave ii end yesterday at 100.68, that also ended the right hand shoulder of a minor S/H/S top calling for a decline to the 86 area, but longer term we should see a break below important support near 77.85, which will trigger an even bigger S/H/S top. (see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/11/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_28.html).

However for now look for the red Pitchfork to define the decline.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-28T09:17:00.008+01:00

EUR/USD - Is still fighting with important support in the 132 - 133 area, but once this area is broken, the downside is wide open.
Short term is looking for resistance in the 133.40 - 133.60 area, which I expect will protect the upside for the next pressure to the downside and possible a break below support at 132.10.

USD/JPY - The big ending diagonal (falling wedge), which has defined wave 5 is still intact, but for how long? I'm still looking for a more serious challenge of the resistance line at 79 and a break above here (will probably not be easy...) will confirm, that a long term bottom is in place and a rally towards 115 has begun.
Short term I will look for support in the 77.30 - 77.40 area for a break above 77.80, which sets the stage for the next push towards resistance at 79.

S&P 500 - I still think we ideally should some more consolidation of the fall from 1,264, but as I have previous stated we are in wave iii down and this is a very powerful wave and correction can be very shallow almost to the none-existent. Therefore be careful.

Short term I still looking for a move towards 1,198.50 area from where the next powerful decline towards the neckline support at 1,082 should be seen.

Gold - Tried to bounce once again, but without success. Looks a little like a boxer getting knock-down every time he tries to stand up.

We have just seen a other failure break above the channel resistance-line and the should push us back down to support at 1,640, if this support breaks too, then we should see a decline towards the channel mid-line near 1,300.

Short term we could see gold a little higher towards 1,715 - 1,716 from where the next decline should set in. Only a break above 1,735.30 will relieve the downside pressure.

Crude Oil - The pressure to the downside is getting stronger. Two weeks ago we saw a long wicked bearish candle, which still dominates the picture. We could see a move closer towards 100, but from there pressure should again build towards the downside for a break below 98.35 and more importantly 95. A break below 95 will open up the downside for a decline towards the long term neckline support at 77.85.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-25T16:17:00.012+01:00

EUR/USD - We have now broken below the green Pitchfork support-line, which is the first warning, that a much deeper decline could be under way. We of cause need to see the break sustained, but if it is we should see a move towards 130.85.
Short term we will probably see a minor reaction back towards the break-point at 133.20 and we might even go as high as 134.10 again, before the next push to the downside.

USD/JPY - Are we in an a-b-c correction from 75.55 or are we in a new more powerful uptrend?
I suspect that we have seen a major bottom at 75.55 and should soon take out resistance at 79.51 for a continuation higher towards the 84.85 - 85.45 area.
Short term a break above 78.45 should do the trick.

S&P 500 - Thanksgiving did the S&P 500 good I can see... If my short term count is correct, we should see a reaction higher towards the 1,193 - 1,198.50 area, before the next decline towards neckline support at 1,083.
That said take care, we are in wave iii, which normally is the most powerful and correction can be very shallow.

Gold - It seems as we are developing a small wave iv triangle, which should resolve into a full-scale test of support at 1,635. If the triangle count is correct, support at 1,635 should hold for a correction higher to the 1,680 area before any new attempt to the downside could be seen.

Crude Oil - The neckline support is holding firm and could spark one more go at resistance near 98.65 in a flat correction, When this rally is done we should see a new attempt to break the neckline support for a much deeper decline.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-24T11:45:00.005+01:00

EUR/USD - We have now more or less seen the test of the green Pitchfork support-line and it has until now done its job, but I doubt this support will be able to fight off the pressure and when it breaks the larger red Pitchfork takes over and pressure of the EUR will increase.
For now expects short-term resistance in the 134.19 - 134.29 area to hold for the next decline below 133.18.
A surprise break above 134.29 will open for a test of strong short-term resistance at 135, which will have to protect the upside or will we see a return to the 138.66 - 138.92 area.

S&P 500 - I think it's about time to a minor correction towards the 1,188 - 1,198 area, before the next serious assault to the downside. Remember we are in wave iii down and corrections tend to be shallow.
Longer term I looking for a more serious test of the S/H/S neckline near 1,085 and a break below here will turn the picture very ugly.

Gold - Not much to add here. We should soon see a more serious test of important support near 1,589 and a break below here will leave the downside open for attack. It will also remove the possible count, that we only saw the end of wave iii of 5 at 1,920 and enforce the count, that we saw an important top at 1,920 and a much deeper decline is in the works.

Crude Oil - The neckline support at 95.35 is still holding up, but for how long? I don't think it will last too long and when it break the S/H/S target will be near the 87 area.

Longer term however I'm looking for a much deeper decline below 75.

USD/JPY - Major bottom in place?

2011-11-23T19:44:00.005+01:00

The price-action of the last couple of week, could be consistent with a large long term bottom being in place. After the intervention of BOJ, which took USD/JPY from 75.55 to 79.51 we have seen a drift lower, but not in any convincing way. That could be a warning of a major bottom being in place at 75.55. If I was BOJ, I would get out the dry gunpowder and start shooting, because a rally above 79.51 could give the USD a massive lift against the JPY and ease the pressure on the Japanese exporters.
If we get a break above 79.51 and more importantly 80.24 the way higher has been paved for a rally towards 115 area over the coming months.
However the battle is not won yet, only a confirmed break above 79.51 will do the trick.

Sensex - Breaking important support

2011-11-23T14:19:00.003+01:00

The Indian Sensex-Index today broke below important support at 15,752. As this is a weekly chart the break still isn't confirmed, but it is clearly a warning that we could see much deeper declines in the coming months. A close below support at 15,752 will open for a continuation down towards 14,393; 12,819 and 10,346, which is the Shoulder/Head/Shoulder target.

In the bigger picture I regards the entire price-action since the 2008 top at 21,206.77 as a big flat correction, which calls for the [C]-leg down to or just below the end of wave [A] at 7,697.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-23T12:02:00.005+01:00

EUR/USD - We finally got the break below minor support at 134.20 and should now be headed towards the green Pitchfork support line near 132.85. If this support breaks too we should see a much deeper decline in EUR/USD.
I do expect support at 132.85 to be broken, but it will probably be a serious fight.

S&P 500 - We are probably about to end minor red wave 1 of black iii down, which should cause a minor consolidation, but remember we are in wave iii down and reactions tends to be shallow in wave iii.
Longer term we should see a serious test of the neck-line support at 1,085.

Gold - 1,635 here we come. I expect this support to be broken for a continuation down towards important support at 1,600. If support at 1,600 breaks as well, we could be looking at a much deeper decline over the coming months.
But for now lets see what happens at 1,635 and likely at 1,600.

Crude Oil - A minor Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top seems to be building. A break below the neck-line support at 95.30 we should see a quick move down to the 86.90 87 area.

Longer term I'm looking for a much deeper decline below 75 towards the 36 - 37 area.

USD/CAD - Building a bottom?

2011-11-22T22:19:00.002+01:00

The long term picture for USD/CAD is clearly down, but we could be looking at an inverted Shoulder/Head/Shoulder bottom. A break above the neckline at 106.40 will confirm the bottom for a rally towards the long term downtrend line, which currently is at 118.53.
Only a break below support at 100.52 and more importantly 98.88 will invalidate the bottom-formation.

NZD/USD - Breaking down

2011-11-22T21:58:00.004+01:00

NZD/USD has since late 2000 been in a major Zig-zag correction. The entire correction has been defined by the green Pitchfork and the throw-over in July/August marks a major top and a return to the Pitchforks mid-line, which currently is located at 67.00 is the next downside target. The latest confirmation, that we are headed towards the Pitchforks mid-line is the break below the medium term support line at 75.72.

AUD/USD - Headed for important support

2011-11-22T21:38:00.005+01:00

It has been a while (http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/10/audusd-is-big-decline-in-cards.html) since I have looked at the AUD/USD pair. My view is the same as then. Since early 2001 we have seen a major double Zig-Zag correction to 110.80 in 2011. Looking at the internal relationship between the two Zig-Zag's they are exactly equal in length.
We might of cause be looking at a triple Zig-Zag, but if this is the case we still a much deeper "X" wave to develop first.
The first natural target is support at 93.86 and a break here will confirm a decline towards the bottom of wave B2 at 80.73. But I think a more likely target will be the rising red support line, which currently is at 64.89.

Apple - Has more than one bit been taken?

2011-11-22T10:36:00.002+01:00

With yesterdays close below the blue trend-line, we might have gotten the first serious warning, that an important top is in place. However we need a break below support at 354 to confirm the top and a continuation towards next support at 310.
If the above count is correct we should see a much deeper decline over the coming months, but for now lets keep an eye on the 354 support.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-22T09:21:00.006+01:00

EUR/USD - The failure to break below minor support at 134.20 is slightly dissapointing, but it hasn't change anything in the overall picture. We should soon face resistance again and a break below 134.20 should only be a question of time for the next decline towards the 133 area.

S&P 500 - It's not a pretty picture for the S&P 500 and a test of the all important neck-line support at 1,086 should be the next big hurdle. On the way down minro support should be seen at 1,183 and at 1,157.

Gold - As can be seen we are clearly in a long term uptrend, but the is a clear risk, that we have seen an important top at the 1,920. We saw a short term break above the channel-resistance line, which alway is a warning, that the prior trend is coming to an end. That said we might only have seen wave iii of 5 at 1,920 and as long as support at 1,600 and more importantly 1,534 hold firm, this possibility is obviouse. However a break below 1,600 will weaken the uptrend since 1999 and a break below 1,534 will call for a test of the channel-support line.

Crude oil - Odds still favor that a top is in place at 103.30, but we need resistance at 97.50 and more likely 100.14 to protect the upside for a break below 94.60, which will open up the downside for a move towards the 75 - 76 area.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-21T09:29:00.006+01:00

EUR/USD - After a falsh break above 135.30 Friday we should be underway towards important support near 133. If support at 133 is broken too the green Pitchfork is dead and focus turns towards the red mid-line near 131 as first target, but this decline could be much deeper.
Resistance at 134.82 should now protect the upside short term (Support turns to resistance)

S&P 500 - After the break below 1,227 the possible bullish triangle many was looking at, was invalidated and focus is now for further declines towards 1,183 and 1,158, but longer term, I do expect, we should see support at 1,084 (neckline) break for a continuation towards 1,011 and 768 as the S/H/S target.

Gold - Is headed for support at 1,632 and most likely a full test of strong support near 1,591, this support should hold to keep the bullish count, calling for one more rally towards 2,036. If however support at 1,591 is broken the count switches to the more bearish count, which has the wave 5 top at 1,920.

Crude oil - Has now clearly broken the minor support line from 84.10 and we should now see a new decline towards this area again, but longer term I'm looking for a break below 75 towards the bottom of wave [A] near 34.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil plus two benefits...

2011-11-18T08:13:00.008+01:00

EUR/USD - Is finding support in the low 134 area, but it should only be a question of time before we see a break below here for a decline to more important support near the lower green Pitchfork support line. If we break clearly below this support, we will be looking at a more serious decline in the coming months.
But for now we should be looking for resistance near 135.30 holding for a break below 134.45 for a move towards the low 133 area.

S&P 500 - With support at 1,227.44 broken we can turn our attention to the downside for a decline towards the 1,149 - 1,158 area. On the way dow support will be found at 1,191.
Longer term we should see a more firm test of the possible neckline near 1,085

Gold - With support at 1,735 clearly broken now we can again turn our focus towards support at 1,630 and possible deeper towards the low 1,500 area longer term.

Crude Oil - Everything points towards a top in place yesterday with the test of 103.37. I must admit, that the rally from 75 has become much higher than I expected, but the triple resistance I mentioned yesterday seems to have done its job and turned prices down. Still we need a clear break below 97.92 to confirm the top, but I do expect that to be seen soon. Probably after a minor back-test towards the 101.50 - 102 area.

Shanghai Composite - After a couple of months correction we should be ready to challenge important support at 2,308 - 2,317 again. A clear break below this support will spell massive trouble for the Chinese economy in 2012.

Longer term my downside target is near 1,173.

Silver - The clear break below support at 32.50 should turn our focus towards support in the

24 - 26 area again. This area should hold or losses will be much deeper.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

2011-11-17T08:55:00.005+01:00

EUR/USD - Working its way lower towards support in the low 133 area. Actually I don't expect this support will hold up for long and do look for a continuation deeper towards next support at 131.44.
Short term I expect 135.17 protecting the upside for a break below 134.20, which confirms a continuation towards the low 133 area.

S&P 500 - Support at 1,236.75 is under fire, but we need a clear break below here and more importantly 1,227.44 to confirm that a top is firmly in place.
As long as support at 1,227.44 isn't broken we can't exclude one last rally towards the 1,320 - 1,345 area, before down.

Gold - Eventhough we have broken below the minor support-line at 1,765 we haven't broken below important support at 1,735, which would confirm, that a top is in place for a decline towards 1,630 area.

As long as support at 1,735 stay intact we can't exclude a new run higher towards 1,803 again, but it should be short lived.

Crude Oil - Has been surprising strong, but has now entered a triple resistance-zone, which I expect will protect the upside for a break below support at 97.92. A break below 97.92 should confirm that a top is in place for a new pressure to the downside, with 89.84 as first target.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil plus two benefits...

2011-11-16T09:16:00.006+01:00

EUR/USD - There was no time for a correction. We broke directly below support at 134.81 and are now headed for the next support in the low 133 area. As we are in wave iii of 3 we should be aware, that corrections can be very shallow and supports just give away as where they warm butter...

S&P 500 - Not much to add here. I'm still looking for a serious test of support near 1,235 and more importantly 1,215.82. If support at 1,215.82 is broken we should see a continuation towards 1,158.

However any break above 1,277.11 will invalidate the bearish picture and call for a move higher towards the 1,320 - 1,345 before the next pressure to the downside sets in.

Gold - Is sitting at support, but we should soon see a clear break for a test of important support at 1,735 and a break here will open up the downside for a decline towards 1,682.

Only a break above 1,803 will invalidate the bearish picture for a continuation higher towards the 1,911 top.

Crude oil - The top-building process is still ongoing, but the rally since 75.06 is running out of steam and we should soon see minor support at 97.32 be broken for a more substancial test of important support at 94.85 and a break here will ensure the top for a new decline below 75.06, with support at 90.32; 87.38 and 84.44 on the way down

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil plus two benefits...

2011-11-15T09:28:00.006+01:00

EUR/USD - Has worked its way lower as expected. Now it's time for a minor counter reaction towards 137.22 before the next powerful leg lower, which should take out support at 134.81 for a continuation towards the low 133 area.

S&P 500 - If we already has reached the top at 1,292.48, the above count should be appropriate. That means a break below support at 1,233 and more importantly 1,215 should be seen soon for a decline towards 1,157 and all important support at near 1,080.

If however support at 1,230-1,233 protects the downside we could see a continuation higher towards 1,311 before we will be ready for the next leg lower.

Gold - Is more or less sitting at support near 1,760 a break below here will open for a decline near 1,681 and important support at 1,625.

Only a break above 1,803 will invalidate this count and call for a continuation higher towards the 1,911 high.

Crude Oil - A top is likely building, but we need a break below 96.35 and more importantly 94.60, which will confirm the top for a decline towards 90.23 and 84.43 longer term.

Until the break below 96.35 we need to allow time for the top to build.